Saturday, April 5, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the bear side at SPX 1875. Markets remain a continuing coin-flip so stay alert for a whipsaw back to the long side. The SPX reversed 34 handles, from the new all-time high at 1897.28 down to 1863, in the Friday session. VIX remains under 14.50 so the bears are not growling that loudly despite the dramatic reversal. The weaker retail sector, with RTH dropping under 59.53, created much of the market selling. Monday will be a fight where the bulls need RTH higher while the bears need VIX higher. Levels and other areas of interest for next week can be identified once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow.

Keybot was flat on the last trade and cycled out of SSO into TWM. Note where the turns have occurred for the algorithm over the last month; SPX 1873, 1877 and now 1875. Pay attention to this pivot area since it likely determines the winner and loser. Bulls win above 1877. Bears win under 1873. The sideways bull-bear struggle is verified with the algo number and signal line within one point of each other. For now, the bears take control of the steering wheel as the bus careens erratically along the boulevard. The imminent turn notation remains until markets firmly commit one way or the other.

4/6/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/4/14; 12:53 PM EST = +47; signal line is +48; go short 1875; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +1.4%)(Keybot this trade = -0.1%; Keybot for 2014 = +3.7%)(Actual this trade = -0.2%; Actual for 2014 = +3.5%)
4/4/14; 12:47 PM EST = +47; signal line is +49 but algorithm remains long
4/4/14; 9:00 AM EST = +63; signal line is +50
4/2/14; 2:32 PM EST = +63; signal line is +49
4/2/14; 12:49 PM EST = +49; signal line is +48
4/2/14; 12:25 PM EST = +63; signal line is +48
4/2/14; 10:11 AM EST = +49; signal line is +47
4/1/14; 9:30 AM EST = +63; signal line is +48; go long 1877; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +1.6%)(Keybot this trade = -0.2%; Keybot for 2014 = +3.8%)(Actual this trade = -1.0%; Actual for 2014 = +3.7%)

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