Saturday, August 30, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long through the holiday weekend. The bears were pushing volatility higher trying to create heavy selling into the weekend sending VIX to 12.44 only one dime from the 12.54 bull-bear line, but alas, the bears are slapped in the face, volatility collapses during the last hour of trading sending equities higher into the holiday. Copper and volatility remain the two key market directional drivers currently; bulls need higher copper and bears need higher volatility. Areas and levels of interest can be identified once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints. US markets are closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday and trading will resume on Tuesday morning. 

8/31/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/29/14; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +51
8/28/14; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +50

Friday, August 29, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long after teasing a move to the short side yesterday. The battle between copper and volatility continues. Bears champion copper with JJC below 38.79 causing market negativity. Bulls wave the volatility banner with the VIX remaining under 12.54 creating market bullishness. One of these two parameters will flinch and dictate the path for ward for equities. Bears win with higher volatility. Bulls win with higher copper. VIX is printing at 12.34 as this is typed only 20 cents away from the bull-bear line in the sand.

The bulls needed to push the SPX above 1998 to create an upside acceleration which occurred with the SPX HOD at 2001.35. The SPX is now printing at 1996.24. The bears can create a downside acceleration if the 1991 support is lost. Note that both copper and volatility were in the bear camp early yesterday and Keybot was in position to flip short (the algo number was at +40 nine points below the signal line at +49) but the internal programming rules would not latch to allow the move, hence, the bulls keep driving the bus. If the VIX moves only 20 cents higher, to 12.54 and higher, and remains above, Keybot will likely flip short. The algo prints the pre-scheduled number a few minutes ago resulting in a one point bump higher for the signal line. Only three points separate the algo number and signal line, hence the imminent turn status is in the title line. Caution is required moving forward.

8/31/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/29/14; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +51
8/28/14; 10:00 AM EST = +54; signal line is +50
8/28/14; 9:45 AM EST = +40; signal line is +49 but algorithm remains long
8/28/14; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +48
8/27/14; 3:47 PM EST = +70; signal line is +47

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as copper dictates the market ebb and flow today. JJC closes exactly on the 38.80 bull-bear line in the sand. How is it possible for the algorithm to predict these numbers in advance? Even David Copperfield scratches his head. The pivot from JJC 38.80 will dictate the stock market direction for Thursday, thus, watch copper overnight, if up, market bulls will be happy tomorrow, if down, bears will rejoice. Also watch VIX 12.52. Copper and volatility remain the two key parameters currently determining broad market direction.

The bulls bump the algo number higher again late in the Wednesday session but the caution flag remains for now since the market price conditions are becoming dicey and unstable. For the SPX on Thursday starting at 2000, the bulls only need to see a smidge of green in the futures and the SPX will immediately run to 2005 and then potentially 2009-2011. The bears need to push under 1996 to accelerate the downside. The bears kept pushing today at the 1998-1999 level but never convincingly broke. A move through 1997-1999 is sideways and is too tight a range. One side or the other will win and run big in that respective direction tomorrow. If copper is up, and the S&P futures are a tiny amount positive, bulls will win big. If copper is weak, and the S&P futures are negative by any amount overnight, the bears will have another chance at bat and run the markets lower.

8/29/14; 10:00 AM EST =
8/27/14; 3:47 PM EST = +70; signal line is +47
8/27/14; 9:39 AM EST = +54; signal line is +45

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the Wednesday trading is underway and copper fails with JJC under 38.81 and in the bear camp creating a ceiling in equities and ushering in the market weakness. VIX is 11.90 so the bears have to send this above 12.50 to show they mean business. If VIX moves above 12.50 it is likely that Keybot will flip short. Watch JJC 38.81 since it is steering the market direction ship so far. The SPX teased the break under 1998-1999 but recovers. If this level fails, 1991 should be on tap in quick order. Bulls need JJC above 38.81 and the market upside will begin again.

8/29/14; 10:00 AM EST =
8/27/14; 9:39 AM EST = +54; signal line is +45
8/26/14; 10:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +42

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long and the battle with copper and volatility continues. Both parameters remain bullish which allows the stock market to keep floating sideways to sideways higher. The bears need either JJC 38.81 or VIX 12.52 to stop the market upside. JJC begins at 38.99 only 18 cents away from the bearish target. Copper is weak overnight down -0.2% but this will only create about 8 cents of downside and place JJC price at 38.90-ish so the bears will need more weakness if they want to flex their muscles. If copper is down about -0.5% or lower today that will place a lid in any further equity market upside. The bears also need higher volatility. VIX begins at 11.63 so the bears need a one-point jump to receive strong downside fuel. If both parameters flip bearish, Keybot will likely flip to the short side. If both parameters remain bullish, equities will continue floating higher.

For the SPX starting at 2000, the bulls need to push above 2005 to create an upside acceleration that will print 2009-2011 in quick order. The bears need to push under 1999 to accelerate the downside to 1991. A move through 2000-2004 is sideways action and a tight range so a winner will likely be determined outside this range.

8/31/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/29/14; 10:00 AM EST =
8/26/14; 10:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +42

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains bullish. The pre-scheduled number bumps the algo number up to +70 moving higher into what can be thought of as overbot territory. Copper is weaker with JJC at 39.02 continuing to create market upside. Bears need the JJC to move under 38.81; so, only about twenty cents lower. Volatility is flatish with VIX at 11.63 continuing to create bullishness. Bears need VIX above 12.53 or they got nothing. The beat goes on.

8/31/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/29/14; 10:00 AM EST =
8/26/14; 10:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +42
8/24/14; 7:00 PM EST = +69; signal line is +40

Monday, August 25, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long and simpoly idled along today without printing any  numbers. The bears receive more slaps to the face with the SPX exploding higher and printing a new all-time record high above 2K at the 2002 palindrome. Interestingly, the prior all-time high about one week ago was 1991, another palindrome and of course the March 2009 market bottom was the 676 closing print; a palindrome. When copper was stronger this morning the fix was in for the bulls. Note that the VIX and the SPX are both up so one of them is wrong and tomorrow we find out which (volatility and the equity markets move inverse to each other and only move in the same direction less than 10% of the time).

Watch JJC 38.85 and VIX 12.58; both are now causing bullishness. Bears need one or both of these targets or they got nothing. If both flip bearish, Keybot the Quant will likely flip to the short side. If both remain bullish markets will continue floating higher. For the SPX starting at 1998, the bulls need to touch the actual 2002 handle and voila, the acceleration higher will continue targeting 2010. The bears need to push under 1992 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1993-2001 is sideways action. Watch copper and volatility. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning one-half hour after trading begins.

8/29/14; 10:00 AM EST =
8/26/14; 10:00 AM EST =
8/24/14; 7:00 PM EST = +69; signal line is +40
8/21/14; 10:02 AM EST = +69; signal line is +37

Sunday, August 24, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the new week of trading. Copper and volatility are driving market direction more than any other parameter right now. Watch JJC 38.73 (now at 39.12 creating market bullishness) and VIX 12.79 (now at 11.47 causing market bullishness). If both parameters remain bullish, equities will float up with the Dow Industrials and Transports printing new all-time highs and the SPX floating above 2000+. If 1 of the 2 parameters turn bearish, the market top is in, a ceiling is immediately placed on any further upside and equities will begin trending lower. If both parameters turn bearish, markets will be in serious sell off mode and Keybot will likely be in position to flip to the short side. Caution is required if 1 of the 2 parameters turn bearish and an imminent turn to the short side will be in play if both parameters turn bearish.

For the SPX starting at 1988, the bulls need to push above 1993.50 to create an upside acceleration that will carry the banner to 2000. The bears need to push under 1985 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1986-1993 is sideways action to begin the week. Bears need weaker copper and the S&P futures to be down -3 or more overnight to show they have game come Monday morning, otherwise, they got nothing. Keybot prints 2 pre-scheduled numbers this week; one on Tuesday morning and the other on Friday morning. The August month of trading began at SPX 1930.67 and ends on Friday. There are only five trading days remaining with the SPX comfortably 57 points above the starting number for a positive month, thus far. Will the bulls maintain a positive August?

8/31/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/29/14; 10:00 AM EST =
8/26/14; 10:00 AM EST =
8/24/14; 7:00 PM EST = +69; signal line is +40
8/21/14; 10:02 AM EST = +69; signal line is +37

Saturday, August 23, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long through the weekend and did not print any numbers on Friday. The bulls are cruising without worry or concern. Bears need higher volatility and lower copper or they got nothing. Next week's areas and levels of interest can be identified once the algo prints the Sunday pre-scheduled number tomorrow.

8/24/14; 7:00 PM EST =
8/21/14; 10:02 AM EST = +69; signal line is +37

Friday, August 22, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. Copper was weak the previous evening so the bears were going to stage a fight, however, at yesterday's opening bell copper turned positive and began running higher fueling the stock market gains and new all-time record highs for the SPX. It's all going the bull's way. Bears need either JJC under 38.73 and/or VIX above 12.80 to stop the market upside. Very interestingly, despite all the uber bullishness, if both copper and volatility turn bearish, respectively, Keybot will be in position to flip to the short side. The caution flag will be out if one of the two parameters enter the bear camp and the imminent turn status will be in play if both parameters turn bearish.

For the SPX starting at 1992, the bulls need three points, to touch the 1995 handle and bingo, the upside will accelerate to 2000+ for the first time in history. The bears need to push under 1987 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1988-1994 is sideways action to end the week. S&P futures are flat. Watch copper and volatility. Copper is higher in today's early trading.

8/24/14; 7:00 PM EST =
8/21/14; 10:02 AM EST = +69; signal line is +37
8/20/14; 3:57 PM EST = +53; signal line is +34