Tuesday, February 9, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the wild and crazy market action continues. The algo prints one number so far this week. The algo number is nine points above the signal line. Copper failed at the opening bell which helped the bears create a melancholy day. Watch JJC 23.85; price is at 23.34 creating market negativity. The market bulls need JJC above 23.85 tomorrow morning or they will be in trouble. Watch copper in overnight trading.

For the SPX starting at 1852, the bulls need to push above 1868 to regain their mojo. The bears need to push under 1835 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1836-1867 is sideways action. The bears keep slapping the bulls around each day despite the algo remaining on the long side. The stock market action is very strange. Watch copper.

2/12/16; 10:00 AM EST =
2/9/16; 9:36 AM EST = -23; signal line is -32
2/7/16; 7:00 PM EST = -7; signal line is -32

Monday, February 8, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the wild market action continues. The algo did not print any numbers today. Copper and utilities remain positive creating more mystery.  Watch JJC 23.87 now at 24.02 creating lift in the stock market. Equities will collapse if JJC loses t he 23.87 level so watch copper trading overnight. If JJC remains above 23.87, the bulls can continue to build a base for the stock market and try and stop the bleeding. The ongoing market action is extremely odd. The SPX has moved inside a 90-handle range over the last two days!

For the SPX starting at 1853 on Tuesday, the bulls need to push above 1874 to accelerate the upside while the bears need to push under 1828 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1829-1873 is sideways action for Tuesday. Markets will probably go as copper goes.

2/12/16; 10:00 AM EST =
2/7/16; 7:00 PM EST = -7; signal line is -32

Sunday, February 7, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the new week of trading. The market action is wild.  Friday's big selloff is a surprise considering that the algo remains bullish. Watch copper closely. Watch JJC 23.86 now at 23.94 only 8 pennies away. If JJC fails under 23.86, stocks will be flushed down the toilet.  If JJC remains above 23.86, the bulls will continue stabilizing the stock market and trying to create a recovery rally. The stock market is behaving very oddly.

For the SPX starting at 1880, the bulls need to retrace Friday's drop to regain their mojo, a formidable task, so the bulls will instead focus on moving copper higher to stop the stock market carnage. The bears need to push under 1873 to accelerate a move lower into the 1860's in a flash. A move through 1874-1912 is sideways action for Monday. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. Watch copper overnight. The stock market will likely go as copper goes.

2/14/16; 7:00 PM EST =
2/12/16; 10:00 AM EST =
2/7/16; 7:00 PM EST = -7; signal line is -32
2/5/16; 9:00 AM EST = -7; signal line is -33

Friday, February 5, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the Friday session is underway. The bears are applying pressure but copper is holding up. Watch JJC 23.89. Price is at 24.11. Market weakness would be confirmed if JJC drops under 23.89, if it stays above, the door is open for the stock market to rise.

The algorithm is quiet this week printing a number on Wednesday and the pre-scheduled number before this morning's opening bell. Stocks remain very choppy and erratic as volatility remains elevated but the broad stock market will likely go as copper goes.

2/7/16; 7:00 PM EST =
2/5/16; 9:00 AM EST = -7; signal line is -33
2/3/16; 9:36 AM EST = -7; signal line is -35
1/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -23; signal line is -36

Tuesday, February 2, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The model is idling along all week long without printing any numbers thus far. Interestingly, stocks sell off but utilities are buoyant. Bears will receive more negative juice if utes drop. UTIL will need to fall through 594.41 to help the bears but is far higher. The market bulls need either JJC above 23.83 and/or VIX under 19.17 to prove that a sustainable rally is in place. Watch copper closely overnight into tomorrow for a sign on market direction.

For the SPX on Wednesday starting at 1903, the bulls need to push above 1935 to regain their mojo, a formidable task, so instead the bulls will focus on pushing utes and copper higher and volatility lower. The bears need to push the SPX under 1897, only 5 or 6 points lower, and boom, the SPX will quickly fall several more handles towards 1890. A move through 1898-1934 is sideways action.

2/5/16; 9:00 AM EST =
1/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -23; signal line is -36
1/29/16; 10:00 AM EST = -23; signal line is -37

Sunday, January 31, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the new week of trading. The bulls are running with the ball for the first time this year; will they run downfield or trip and fumble? Market bulls need either JJC above 23.90 and/or VIX below 19.20 which will prove the upside stock market rally is real. Until at least one of these two parameters occur, the rally in equities is suspect.

The market bears need to push UTIL under 594.41 to get their mojo back but this is a formidable task with UTIL exploding above 611 last week. If UTIL drops under 594.41, Keybot will likely flip back to the short side. If UTIL drops under 580.50 it is likely that the stock market would go into free fall. For now, bulls are not worried since utes are strong.

For the SPX for Monday starting at 1940, the bulls need any smidge of green in the S&P futures overnight and bingo, several handles of upside is on tap for the SPX after the opening bell. The bears need to retrace Friday's big move higher, as they say in Brooklyn, 'good luck wit dat', so instead the bears will be pushing utilities and copper lower and volatility higher. Watch copper overnight since stocks will likely move in the same direction as the other yellow metal this week.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. The bulls are driving the bus with the algo number 13 points above the signal line but the caution flag remains out until utes, copper and volatility decide the market direction forward.

2/7/16; 7:00 PM EST =
2/5/16; 9:00 AM EST =
1/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -23; signal line is -36
1/29/16; 10:00 AM EST = -23; signal line is -37

Saturday, January 30, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long through the weekend as the bulls will attempt to continue the recovery rally next week. Bulls will need higher copper and lower volatility to verify that the stock market will continue rallying. Parameters and levels of interest can be highlighted after the Sunday and EOM number prints tomorrow.

1/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/29/16; 10:00 AM EST = -23; signal line is -37
1/29/16; 9:34 AM EST = +23; signal line is -38; go long 1902; (Benchmark SPX for 2016  = -7.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +7.0%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +7.0%)(Actual results this trade = +11.4%; Actual results for 2016 = +11.4%)

Friday, January 29, 2016

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

After all the recent threats, the Keybot the Quant flips to the long side. UTIL ran up through the critical 597 level and never looked back. UTIL is at 608 now creating bull fuel. Keybot flips long at SPX 1902 after the opening bell. The market bulls have to move JJC (copper) above 23.90 and/or VIX under 19.20 to firmly prove that up is the direction for stocks going forward. The market bears must send UTIL under 597 to create market negativity. If the three parameters above bump along remaining  in their respective camps, equities will float along sideways with a slight upward bias. As always, stay alert for a whipsaw move back to the short side. For now, the bulls are in charge for the first time this year.

The SPX benchmark index begins the year down -7%. On the first trade of 2016, the algorithm gains +7% and the actual executed trading gains +11.4%. Keybot exits RWM and enters SSO. The algo is back in 2x ETF mode using a double-leveraged play. The 2x ETF's will be used unless a whipsaw move occurs which will cause the model to drop back into the 1x ETF mode for about a 5-week duration. The bulls have the ball; how far will they run down field?

1/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/29/16; 10:00 AM EST = -23; signal line is -37
1/29/16; 9:34 AM EST = +23; signal line is -38; go long 1902; (Benchmark SPX for 2016  = -7.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +7.0%; Keybot algo for 2016 = +7.0%)(Actual results this trade = +11.4%; Actual results for 2016 = +11.4%)
1/28/16; 12:35 PM EST = -23; signal line is -38 but algorithm remains short
1/26/16; 10:00 AM EST = -39; signal line is -38
1/25/16; 9:36 AM EST = -40; signal line is -39
1/24/16; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -39 but algorithm remains short
1/22/16; 11:57 AM EST = -24; signal line is -39 but algorithm remains short
1/21/16; 3:03 PM EST = -40; signal line is -39
1/21/16; 1:29 PM EST = -56; signal line is -39
1/21/16; 10:26 AM EST = -40; signal line is -38
1/21/16; 9:51 AM EST = -56; signal line is -38
1/20/16; 3:15 PM EST = -40; signal line is -37
1/20/16; 11:54 AM EST = -56; signal line is -37
1/20/16; 10:25 AM EST = -40; signal line is -36
1/20/16; 9:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -36 but algorithm remains short
1/17/16; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -36 but algorithm remains short
1/15/16; 2:21 PM EST = -24; signal line is -37 but algorithm remains short
1/15/16; 2:18 PM EST = -40; signal line is -37
1/15/16; 1:35 PM EST = -56; signal line is -37
1/15/16; 1:34 PM EST = -40; signal line is -36
1/15/16; 1:05 PM EST = -24; signal line is -35 but algorithm remains short
1/15/16; 12:55 PM EST = -40; signal line is -36
1/15/16; 10:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -35 but algorithm remains short
1/12/16; 3:26 PM EST = -24; signal line is -36 but algorithm remains short
1/12/16; 3:24 PM EST = -40; signal line is -35
1/12/16; 3:07 PM EST = -56; signal line is -35
1/12/16; 1:18 PM EST = -40; signal line is -34
1/12/16; 12:30 PM EST = -56; signal line is -33
1/12/16; 12:24 PM EST = -40; signal line is -33
1/12/16; 11:16 AM EST = -24; signal line is -32 but algorithm remains short
1/12/16; 11:01 AM EST = -40; signal line is -31
1/12/16; 9:55 AM EST = -56; signal line is -31
1/12/16; 9:54 AM EST = -40; signal line is -30
1/11/16; 9:36 AM EST = -24; signal line is -29 but algorithm remains short
1/10/16; 7:00 PM EST = -40; signal line is -29
1/8/16; 3:53 PM EST = -40; signal line is -29
1/8/16; 11:49 AM EST = -24; signal line is -29 but algorithm remains short
1/8/16; 11:40 AM EST = -40; signal line is -29
1/8/16; 10:50 AM EST = -24; signal line is -30 but algorithm remains short
1/8/16; 10:42 AM EST = -40; signal line is -30
1/8/16; 10:32 AM EST = -24; signal line is -31 but algorithm remains short
1/8/16; 10:15 AM EST = -40; signal line is -31
1/8/16; 9:38 AM EST = -24; signal line is -31 but algorithm remains short
1/8/16; 9:00 AM EST = -40; signal line is -31
1/7/16; 11:28 AM EST = -40; signal line is -32
1/7/16; 11:17 AM EST = -24; signal line is -32 but algorithm remains short
1/7/16; 11:04 AM EST = -40; signal line is -31
1/7/16; 10:54 AM EST = -24; signal line is -29 but algorithm remains short
1/7/16; 9:36 AM EST = -40; signal line is -28
1/6/16; 3:18 PM EST = -24; signal line is -25 but algorithm remains short
1/6/16; 3:03 PM EST = -40; signal line is -22
1/6/16; 12:14 PM EST = -24; signal line is -19
1/6/16; 12:05 PM EST = -24; signal line is -18
1/6/16; 11:26 AM EST = -8; signal line is -16 but algorithm remains short
1/6/16; 11:15 AM EST = -24; signal line is -13
1/6/16; 10:40 AM EST = -40; signal line is -11
1/6/16; 10:39 AM EST = -24; signal line is -8
1/6/16; 10:27 AM EST = -8; signal line is -6
1/6/16; 10:14 AM EST = -24; signal line is -4
1/6/16; 9:36 AM EST = -40; signal line is -3
1/5/16; 1:47 PM EST = -8; signal line is -1
1/5/16; 10:40 AM EST = -24; signal line is +0
1/5/16; 9:53 AM EST = -40; signal line is +1
1/5/16; 9:36 AM EST = -24; signal line is +3
1/4/16; 11:34 AM EST = -40; signal line is +5
1/4/16; 11:02 AM EST = -56; signal line is +7
1/4/16; 10:39 AM EST = -40; signal line is +10
1/4/16; 10:32 AM EST = -56; signal line is +13
1/4/16; 10:08 AM EST = -40; signal line is +17
1/4/16; 9:59 AM EST = -24; signal line is +19
1/4/16; 9:57 AM EST = -40; signal line is +21
1/4/16; 9:48 AM EST = -56; signal line is +23
1/4/16; 9:36 AM EST = -40; signal line is +25
1/1/16; Begin 2016 Data Set = +6; signal line is +27; go short 2044; (Benchmark SPX for 2016  = 0%)(Keybot algo this trade = 0%; Keybot algo for 2016 = 0%)(Actual results this trade = 0%; Actual results for 2016 = 0%) Keybot the Quant Begins 2016 on the Short Side from SPX 2044. All Data 0%. Begin 2016.

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market roller coaster ride continues, one day down a couple hundred Dow points and the next day up a couple hundred. The bull-bear fight is ongoing with the algo number and signal line displaying only a one point difference. The bulls need either VIX below 19.30, JJC above 23.88 and/or UTIL above 597 to prove the relief rally is real. If any one of those three parameters turn bullish, Keybot will likely flip long. The bears need UTIL under 577.33 which would unleash carnage in the stock market. If the parameters remain as is, the stock market will float sideways with a slight upward bias.

For the SPX starting at 1904, the bulls need to touch 1907 and the upside will accelerate to 1910-1912 immediately then to 1920. The bears need to push under 1879 to regain their mojo. A move through 1880-1906 is sideways action for Wednesday. The bears are driving the bus but the bulls also have their hands on the steering wheel as the vehicle careens down the boulevard. Pay attention to volatility and copper.

1/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/29/16; 10:00 AM EST =
1/26/16; 10:00 AM EST = -39; signal line is -38
1/25/16; 9:36 AM EST = -40; signal line is -39
1/24/16; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -39 but algorithm remains short

Sunday, January 24, 2016

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

The bull-bear battle continues. With Friday's robust upside action you would think the algo would have flipped long but it did not. Keybot is a hair away from flipping long and probably will if the SPX runs above 1909, however, the bulls will likely be slapped in the face due to the utilities. UTIL 577.24 and 596.98 are two key bull-bear levels for the week ahead. UTIL begins at 589.14 creating stock market bullishness above the 577 level but will create bearishness under 597 and likely dampen the bulls hope to receive the go signal for the upside (last week the key upper level was UTIL 583 but this number no longer has any meaning and is replaced with 597 for all of this week).

The opening minutes of trading will be very critical on Monday morning. Since the utes may be out of touch for the bulls, volatility or copper may lock in the move to the bull camp if either VIX drops under 19.33 and/or JJC moves above 23.95. Keybot is currently flagging utilities, volatility and copper as the three key parameters most greatly impacting broad market direction.

For the SPX starting at 1907, the bulls need to touch 1909 and bingo, the upside will accelerate to 1910-1912 in a heartbeat and then likely to 1920 and the uber strong 1924 resistance level. The bears need to push under 1877 to regain their downside mojo, a formidable task, so instead bears will focus on pushing utilities lower, volatility higher and copper lower. A move through 1878-1908 is sideways action to begin the new week.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday and one on Friday. The January month of trading ends on Friday. Note that the algo number is overtaking the signal line more and more each day but the bulls still need a tiny bit more energy to confirm a relief rally and flip Keybot to the long side.

1/31/16; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
1/29/16; 10:00 AM EST =
1/26/16; 10:00 AM EST =
1/24/16; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -39 but algorithm remains short
1/22/16; 11:57 AM EST = -24; signal line is -39 but algorithm remains short
1/21/16; 3:03 PM EST = -40; signal line is -39
1/21/16; 1:29 PM EST = -56; signal line is -39
1/21/16; 10:26 AM EST = -40; signal line is -38
1/21/16; 9:51 AM EST = -56; signal line is -38
1/20/16; 3:15 PM EST = -40; signal line is -37
1/20/16; 11:54 AM EST = -56; signal line is -37
1/20/16; 10:25 AM EST = -40; signal line is -36
1/20/16; 9:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -36 but algorithm remains short
1/17/16; 7:00 PM EST = -24; signal line is -36 but algorithm remains short