Wednesday, April 23, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long and idled today without printing any numbers. Bulls remain in control and the AAPL and FB earnings blowouts this evening may keep the upside party going. RTH 58.97 remains the key. Bulls must move through RTH 58.97 to chart the path to SPX 1900. Bears need XLF 21.78 and/or VIX 14.70 to create negativity.

For the SPX starting at 1875, the bulls need to touch the 1880 handle and an upside acceleration will occur. The bears need to push under 1874 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1875-1879 is sideways action. The bulls are cruising along and set up for an up day for Thursday. Watch RTH 58.97.

4/25/14; 10:00 AM EST =
4/22/14; 2:58 PM EST = +47; signal line is +24

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls throw another party yesterday boosting the retail sector which will launch a move to SPX 1900, however, the bulls faded into the closing bell. Watch RTH 58.97 since it is the key element dictating market direction currently. RTH begins at 58.86 causing market bearisness. Bulls will be popping champagne corks if RTH moves above 58.97. XLF 21.78 is another bull-bear line in the sand. XLF begins at 21.99 causing market bullishness. VIX 14.70 is important with the bulls winning this fight. Copper is important with the bears winning this fight keeping JJC under 37.45.

For the SPX starting at 1880, the bulls need to touch the 1885 handle and an upside acceleration will occur. The bears need to push under 1873 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1874-1884 is sideways action for Wednesday. S&P futures are -2 at this writing about three hours before the opening bell. The bulls are cruising and will be in clover if RTH moves above 58.97. The bears need XLF under 21.78, and VIX above 14.70, and the SPX under 1873, to create a scenario for a potential flip to the short side.

4/27/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/25/14; 10:00 AM EST =
4/22/14; 2:58 PM EST = +47; signal line is +24
4/22/14; 11:38 AM EST = +63; signal line is +24
4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST = +47; signal line is +23

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls continue an upside rally without resistance. The algo did not print any numbers in the Monday session. The bears held the line at SPX 1870-1871 all day long but in the final minutes the bulls thrust higher to 1872. Note how financials, XLF, actually finished negative. This allows bears to keep a lid on the upside. Bears need either XLF 21.77 and/or VIX 14.70 to place a ceiling on the upside and roll equities over to the downside. If both turn bearish and the SPX drops under 1863, Keybot will likely flip short but at this juncture this scenario does not appear to be in play. The caution flag will be needed if the bears push XLF under 21.77. Bulls will receive more upside juice with either RTH 58.95 and/or JJC 37.45 so the bull focus is to push the retail sector and copper higher, respectively. Bulls must have these two sectors in pocket to move to the all-time highs and then above SPX 1900.

For the SPX starting at 1872, closing at the high, the bulls only need a tiny smidge of positivity and this will set up an acceleration move higher. A move above the strong 1874 resistance is a big deal and shows the bulls in firm control heading to the all-time highs. The bears need to hold the 1872-1874 resistance level with all their might and at the same time push under 1863 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1864-1871 is sideways action. S&P futures are flat about four hours before the US opening bell.

4/25/14; 10:00 AM EST =
4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST = +47; signal line is +23

Monday, April 21, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long to start the new week of trading after the Easter holiday weekend. The algo is tracking financials, volatility and copper as the three key market movers. Bears need either XLF 21.77 and/or VIX 14.74 to place a lid on the market upside. The bulls need higher copper to receive more upside go juice so watch JJC 37.50 as the signal for higher equities. Copper is flat in early trading. If financials and volatility turn bearish, and the SPX drops under 1857, Keybot will likely flip short but this appears a tall task as the morning arrives on the East Coast.

For the SPX starting at 1865, the bulls need to touch the 1870 handle and an upside acceleration will occur. Bears need to push under 1857 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1858-1869 is sideways action. S&P futures are +2 at this writing about 4-1/2 hours before the opening bell. The bulls are cruising and bears got nothing unless they achieve lower financials and higher volatility. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. 

4/27/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/25/14; 10:00 AM EST =
4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST = +47; signal line is +23
4/16/14; 2:54 PM EST = +47; signal line is +22; go long 1859; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +0.6%)(Keybot this trade = -0.6%; Keybot for 2014 = +3.4%)(Actual this trade = -0.6%; Actual for 2014 = +0.9%)

Friday, April 18, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long through the Easter holiday weekend. US markets will reopen for trading on Monday. Financials, XLF, remain buoyant in the Thursday session providing an easy day for bulls. Semi's catapult higher creating bull juice. Volatility drops popping equities higher. In addition, the bulls are boosting copper so they can receive more upside market juice next week. Bears will focus on pounding financials lower to stop the market upside. Bulls will focus on sending copper higher. Keybot did not print any numbers on Thursday. The bulls are cruising with the algo number 25 points above the signal line.

4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/16/14; 2:54 PM EST = +47; signal line is +22; go long 1859; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +0.6%)(Keybot this trade = -0.6%; Keybot for 2014 = +3.4%)(Actual this trade = -0.6%; Actual for 2014 = +0.9%)

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side today. Once the financials, XLF 21.77, joined the bull camp, the algo latched across all parameters and flips long at SPX 1859. The markets are whipsawing sideways. Note that the prior move was 1859 to 1848, now 1848 back to 1859. These moves will wreak havoc on a timing model but Keybot is smart enough to drop down into single ETF's to ride the turbulence out minimizing the damage. Keybot cycled out of SH and into SPY. The algorithm program lost -0.6% on the last trade and also the actual trading. After 3-1/2 months roll by this year, the broad market is flat on the year.

SOX moves above 563.10. VIX drops under 14.77. Then XLF moves above 21.77 creating the late-day orgy into the closing bell. A triumphant of bullishness. Bears got nothing unless they regain one of these critical bull-bear levels. XLF is 21.82 only a nickel away so pay attention to that one after the opening bell. Tomorrow is the last day of trading this week due to the Good Friday holiday. Bulls will receive additional fuel by goosing copper and/or the retail sector.

For the SPX, the power thrust late-day is strong since price closed at the exact high at 1862.31. Therefore, the bulls only need to see a tiny smidgen of green overnight and it will be off to the races with an acceleration higher into the weekend. The bears will try to prevent any positive number in the overnight futures with all their might. In addition, bears must weaken financials and semiconductors and raise volatility. Bears will also try to push the SPX under 1846 to regain their mojo, a formidable task since the holiday weekend is nigh and traders are in a happy mood content with lining the markets out sideways so the barbecue can be fired up.

A move through SPX 1847-1861 is sideways action. The bulls are cruising. If two of the three parameters in the middle paragraph turn bearish, consider the imminent turn notation to be in play. The caution flag remains out since the bears may stage a comeback tomorrow. The whipsaw sideways market behavior may continue.

4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/16/14; 2:54 PM EST = +47; signal line is +22; go long 1859; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +0.6%)(Keybot this trade = -0.6%; Keybot for 2014 = +3.4%)(Actual this trade = -0.6%; Actual for 2014 = +0.9%)
4/16/14; 11:54 AM EST = +31; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short
4/16/14; 11:36 AM EST = +15; signal line is +21
4/16/14; 9:54 AM EST = +1; signal line is +21
4/16/14; 9:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +23
4/15/14; 1:51 PM EST = +17; signal line is +23
4/15/14; 10:59 AM EST = +1; signal line is +25
4/14/14; 3:48 PM EST = +17; signal line is +26
4/14/14; 3:06 PM EST = +1; signal line is +28
4/14/14; 9:58 AM EST = +17; signal line is +30
4/13/14; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +31
4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST = +1; signal line is +33
4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +35
4/10/14; 12:54 PM EST = +17; signal line is +37; go short 1848; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +0.0%)(Keybot this trade = -0.6%; Keybot for 2014 = +4.0%)(Actual this trade = -2.6%; Actual for 2014 = +1.5%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Another wild and crazy market day occurs. The algo is tracking SOX 563.10, VIX 14.77 and XLF 21.77 as bull-bear lines in the sand. Semi's and volatility turn bullish today creating the market upside. Finanicals are attacking the XLF 21.77 but stalling so far. Keybot wants to go long right now but the internal programming rules are holding it back. One of the key elements that will help latch the algo into flipping long is the SPX HOD print at 1858.45. If the bulls can send the SPX above 1858.45 and hold it above for several minutes, Keybot will likely flip long. Bears need to move SOX under 563.10 and/or VIX above 14.77 immediately to prevent the algo from flipping long. High drama. Keybot is a hair away from going long.

4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/16/14; 11:54 AM EST = +31; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short
4/16/14; 11:36 AM EST = +15; signal line is +21
4/16/14; 9:54 AM EST = +1; signal line is +21
4/16/14; 9:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +23
4/15/14; 1:51 PM EST = +17; signal line is +23

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is short moving into the Wednesday session of trading. Semi's and financials rule the roost. Bears need SOX under 563.10 to regain their mojo. Bulls need XLF above 21.77 to lock in the market upside and substantiate the upside market rally. If the XLF moves above 21.77, and the SPX prints above 1844, and both stay above, Keybot will likely flip long. Thus, pay close attention to bank earnings moving forward since they will impact markets in a major way.

For the SPX starting at 1843, the bulls need to push up through 1844, only one single point, to accelerate higher so watch the overnight S&P futures to see if the bulls receive the positive nod. The bears need to drop under 1816 to regain their mojo; a formidable task that is 27 points lower. Instead, the bears will simply try to create weakness in financials and semiconductors to halt the market upside. A move through SPX 1817-1843 is sideways action for Wednesday. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number in the morning before the opening bell. The bears are in control but the bulls are making a strong move higher.

4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/16/14; 9:00 AM EST =
4/15/14; 1:51 PM EST = +17; signal line is +23

March 2014 Market Chronology Available on Amazon Kindle

Keystone the Scribe, one of Keybot's sister blog sites, releases the latest issue of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics March 2014-03 available on Amazon's Kindle. A handy link is provided in the left margin. All the recent eBook links are provided in the margins.

If you are a seasoned professional trader or a novice wanting to learn how and why markets move in real-time, the daily chronology series are the books for you. The eBooks detail market reactions to the Monthly Jobs Reports, Fed meetings, economic data, earnings releases and geopolitical events. Business and economic teachers and students enjoy the chronologies since textbook theory comes to life. Read about how the IPO frenzy is affecting markets. Study the impact of the recent copper collapse on markets. Become educated on how Ukraine turmoil affects global markets and currencies.


As always, special thanks to the international support for the K E Stone Blog Series of Web Sites especially the strong following from major money centers in New York, Chicago, London, Frankfurt, Paris, Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Sydney and the loyal following from the US, Canada, Mexico, Australia, UK, Germany, France, Russia, China (yes, Russia and China) and Malaysia. The blog sites only continue with the ongoing support of all followers large and small, professional and novice. Keystone the Scribe is the respected world leader in providing historical context for global markets and world economics. Read the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics March 2014-03 issue today to gain a vital market edge. Thank you for the support.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the market craziness continues. Markets are up, down, up, down, if you blink or look away the indexes are in the opposite direction. The bulls push semiconductors higher so the broad indexes recover. Watch financials, XLF 21.77, now at 21.62 only 15 cents away. If the XLF pushes above 21.77, and the SPX above 1844, Keybot will likely flip long, hence, the imminent turn status is back in play again.

4/16/14; 9:00 AM EST =
4/15/14; 1:51 PM EST = +17; signal line is +23
4/15/14; 10:59 AM EST = +1; signal line is +25