Sunday, September 21, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the new week of trading. As mentioned in the previous post, volatility is the main market driver currently with VIX 12.38 the bull-bear line in the sand. Equities will continue higher if VIX remains under 12.38. Bears will growl if VIX moves above 12.38. If the VIX stays above 12.38, and the SPX drops under 2007, and remains under, Keybot will likely flip to the short side, hence the imminent turn notation remains in the title line. Bulls and bears are fighting for control.

For the SPX starting at 2010, the bulls need to push above 2019, the all-time high, to accelerate higher to 2022 in a heartbeat. The bears need to push under 2007 to accelerate the downside which will tag 2002-2003 support very fast. A move through 2008-2018 is sideways action to begin the week. Watch the VIX 12.38 level like a hawk at the opening bell; it will tell you the market directional answer. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week; one on Tuesday morning and the other on Friday morning.

9/28/14; 7:00 PM EST =
9/26/14; 10:00 AM EST =
9/23/14; 10:00 AM EST =
9/21/14; 7:00 PM EST = +56; signal line is +42
9/19/14; 1:57 PM EST = +56; signal line is +42

Saturday, September 20, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls and bears fight for market control. Volatility is the key market driver currently and VIX 12.38 rules the roost come Monday. VIX begins at 12.11 creating market bullishness. Bears need VIX above 12.38 or they got nothing. Other parameters and levels of interest can be identified once the algo prints the Sunday pre-scheduled number tomorrow.

9/21/14; 7:00 PM EST =
9/19/14; 1:57 PM EST = +56; signal line is +42

Friday, September 19, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. Utilities are elevated all day long so bears do not receive help from this sector. VIX moves above the 12.37 bull-bear level creating market weakness but the bulls recover and push VIX back below 12.37. If the VIX moves above 12.37 and the SPX prints under 2003, Keybot will likely flip short. Since the SPX came within a few handles of falling under 2003 a short time ago, the imminent turn notation returns in the title line. Markets remain a coin flip with lots of sideways drama ongoing. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 2019.26. Bulls need lower volatility and bears need higher volatility. VIX is at 12.17 and SPX is at 2012.

9/21/14; 7:00 PM EST =
9/19/14; 1:57 PM EST = +56; signal line is +42
9/19/14; 1:00 PM EST = +42; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains long
9/18/14; 9:59 AM EST = +56; signal line is +42

Thursday, September 18, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long with volatility and utilities remaining in the bull camp. If UTIL falls under 550, equities will weaken, however, at the closing bell for the week, the UTIL 542.42 level is key for all of next week. Bulls should stay above that which would alleviate any market negativity that may occur on Friday. If UTIL falls under 542.42 in the days ahead, the stock market will be in serious trouble going forward. Volatility remains the key. Bears need VIX above 12.38 or they got nothing (now at 12.03 causing market bullishness).

For Friday with the SPX starting at 2011, the bulls only need one point higher to punch up through the all-time high at 2012.34, and several more handles of upside will print quickly with a smooth ride to 2018. The bears must keep the overnight S&P futures negative to stop the relentless bull rally. After the opening bell, the bears must push the SPX under the 2002-2003 support area and that will create a ceiling in equities and provide breathing room for bears. A move through 2004-2011 is sideways action to end the week. 

9/21/14; 7:00 PM EST =
9/18/14; 9:59 AM EST = +56; signal line is +42

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains on the long side after the wild ride yesterday. The bulls continue to slap the bears in the face today. Commodities and copper are the only bear-friendly sectors. The VIX collapses under 12.37 after the opening bell moving into the bull camp sending the stock market higher. The VIX is now at 11.98 losing the 12 handle so equities are printing at the highs. Watch VIX 12.37. Bears got nothing without volatility increasing above VIX 12.37.

[Utilities had a bad data feed earlier.] The algo is tracking utilities again the UTIL 550 number for all of this week. Markets will weaken if UTIL loses the 550 level. The UTIL bull-bear level for next week is 542.42 a much easier target for bulls to remain above. The following week, however, the week of 9/29/14, UTIL must remain above 566.46 or the markets will weaken. So the bulls may have an easier road next week with utilities but price must start marching far higher over the coming days otherwise the utes will usher in market weakness as September comes to a close. This concept is very important; utes must rise through late next week up to the UTIL 566 level and higher, otherwise, the stock market will likely weaken considerably. If utilities climb steadily higher now through next week, through 555, 560, 565, and higher, that is a signal that the bulls remain in great shape.

The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 2011.79 and gunning for another as this is typed with price above 2010. Everything is going the bulls way. Equities will continue sideways to sideways higher until the VIX moves above 12.37 or UTIL moves under 550.

9/21/14; 7:00 PM EST =
9/18/14; 9:59 AM EST = +56; signal line is +42
9/18/14; 9:00 AM EST = +42; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains long
9/17/14; 3:50 PM EST = +42; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains long

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the long side but the algo is already having second thoughts about the move with the algo dipping back below the signal line. The internal parameters are not latching in place to allow the whipsaw back to the short side as yet. So the bulls keep riding the Yellen rally wave into the closing bell only a couple minutes away. VIX is 12.61 above the bull-bear line identified by the algo at 12.37 back in bear territory and causing the market leakage into the bell. If the bears could have prevented the VIX from falling under 12.37 a short time ago, the algo may have not flipped long. The bulls are driving the bus but a bull-bear struggle continues.

9/18/14; 9:00 AM EST =
9/17/14; 3:50 PM EST = +42; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains long
9/17/14; 2:24 PM EST = +56; signal line is +42; go long 2005; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +8.5%)(Keybot this trade = -0.4%; Keybot for 2014 = +8.1%)(Actual this trade = -1.0%; Actual for 2014 = +9.3%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side just before Fed Chair Yellen begins speaking today at SPX 2005. Equities continue to react wildly, down, up, sideways, down, big up, down, like a ping-pong ball. Volatility is key. Watch VIX 12.37. Copper is weak today remaining in the bear camp. The VIX turns bullish and the market is in Fed rally mode although leaking lower as this message is typed.

The broad indexes are printing at new all-time highs. The algo takes a -0.4% loss with the computer program on the last trade and a -1.0% loss with the actual trade. Keybot switches out of SDS and into SSO.

The markets keep dropping off the highs and VIX is coming back up to the bull-bear line at 12.37. It is very rare for the algo to whipsaw on the same day; it may have happened only a two times in the last five years. If the VIX moves above 12.37 and it holds, the SPX likely has to print down at 1985-1994 to create a whipsaw back to the short side so the bulls may be okay into the closing bell. Bulls and bears continue fighting it out. Stay alert for a whipsaw move probably not in the final minutes today but perhaps for tomorrow.

9/21/14; 7:00 PM EST =
9/18/14; 9:00 AM EST =
9/17/14; 2:24 PM EST = +56; signal line is +42; go long 2005; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +8.5%)(Keybot this trade = -0.4%; Keybot for 2014 = +8.1%)(Actual this trade = -1.0%; Actual for 2014 = +9.3%)
9/16/14; 9:52 AM EST = +42; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short
9/15/14; 3:48 PM EST = +26; signal line is +43
9/15/14; 2:32 PM EST = +42; signal line is +44
9/15/14; 2:11 PM EST = +26; signal line is +45
9/15/14; 12:55 PM EST = +42; signal line is +47
9/15/14; 12:54 PM EST = +26; signal line is +48
9/15/14; 12:09 PM EST = +10; signal line is +49
9/15/14; 11:23 AM EST = +26; signal line is +51
9/14/14; 7:00 PM EST = +42; signal line is +52
9/12/14; 10:00 AM EST = +42; signal line is +53
9/8/14; 11:57 AM EST = +40; signal line is +53
9/8/14; 9:36 AM EST = +56; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains short
9/7/14; 7:00 PM EST = +54; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains short
9/5/14; 12:36 PM EST = +54; signal line is +53 but algorithm remains short
9/5/14; 9:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +52
9/4/14; 3:03 PM EST = +40; signal line is +51; go short 1997; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +8.1%)(Keybot this trade = +2.3%; Keybot for 2014 = +8.5%)(Actual this trade = +4.7%; Actual for 2014 = +10.3%)

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short through the wild circus-type behavior today. The algo is on the verge of going long. Watch JJC 38.48 (now 38.34 causing market negativity) and VIX 12.37 (now at 12.73 causing market negativity). If either the JJC or VIX turns bullish, only one is necessary, and the SPX moves above 2002, Keybot will likely flip to the long side. The bears are on the ropes and need to maintain bearish copper and higher volatility while at the same time forcing semiconductors and utilities lower.

For the SPX starting at 1999, the bull only need three points, to poke up through the strong 2002-2003 resistance and an upside acceleration will occur with the algo probably flipping to the long side. The bears must push under 1980, a formidable task, to regain their mojo, so instead they will focus on lower copper, semi's and utes and higher volatility. A move through 1981-2001 is sideways action for Wednesday.

The Fed announcements and drama begin at 2 PM (7 PM London time). Since copper (JJC) is so close to turning bullish, watch the copper trade overnight. If copper is up strongly, the fix is likely in and the bulls should run tomorrow. Negative copper will keep the bears in the hunt. Markets are at an important inflection point and Fed Chair Yellen will decide the markets' fate.

9/18/14; 9:00 AM EST =
9/16/14; 9:52 AM EST = +42; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is bearish but the wild move in copper up +2.6% has the algo on the verge of going long. The move came out of left field. Watch JJC 38.48 as the bull-bear line in the sand. JJC has remained under creating negativity but price is at 38.36 only pennies away threatening a positive cross which will send equities even higher. If JJC moves above 38.48, and the SPX moves above 1999, Keybot will likely flip long. The SPX has staged a 20-point turnaround intraday

9/18/14; 9:00 AM EST =
9/16/14; 9:52 AM EST = +42; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but note that the algo wants to flip long with the algo number and signal line on top of each other at +42. There is an internal latch that will not close under these conditions so the algo remains bearish. UTIL explodes higher well above the 550 danger line in place for all of this week bolstering the bull case. The bulls also send semiconductors higher with SOX above the critical 682.81 level back  in the bull camp creating the market upside. The bears are content since VIX remains above 12.39.

Despite the run higher, the algo will likely not flip long today. If the VIX falls under 12.39, however, the upside path is guaranteed and Keybot will likely flip long in a heartbeat. For now, the beat goes on.

9/18/14; 9:00 AM EST =
9/16/14; 9:52 AM EST = +42; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short
9/15/14; 3:48 PM EST = +26; signal line is +43