Saturday, April 25, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long through the weekend. The algo was very active on Friday mainly due to erratic behavior in commodities. GTX overcame the important 3212 bull-bear line identified by Keybot closing at 3220 which guaranteed the market upside happiness.

The imminent turn notation is in play since the bears can quickly turn the tables with lower commodities, financials or copper. The areas and levels of interest to the algo can be identified once the pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow.

4/26/15; 7:00 PM EST =
4/24/15; 2:31 PM EST = +68; signal line is +54
4/24/15; 1:55 PM EST = +54; signal line is +53
4/24/15; 11:47 AM EST = +68; signal line is +53
4/24/15; 10:07 AM EST = +54; signal line is +53

Friday, April 24, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo prints three numbers out of the gate this morning. Semiconductors and commodities weaken while copper strengthens. Financials are soft. Keybot is tracking four parameters as the most influential concerning market direction; SOX 700, GTX 3212, JJC 32.59 and XLF 24.17. Market bears need to push XLF under 24.17 and/or JJC under 32.59 to develop downside energy. Bulls need to push SOX above 700 and/or GTX above 3212 to gain upside juice. If all four parameters remains status quo, stocks will slide sideways into the weekend with a slight upward bias.

The algo number is only one point away from the signal line highlighting the ongoing bull-bear struggle. Further, the algo hit +84 after the opening bell which is essentially an overbot condition since the algorithm, at its heart, is an oscillator. Flip a coin; stocks can go either way. If one of the parameters listed above turn bearish, and the SPX drops under 2103, Keybot will likely flip short. If one of the two parameters above turn bearish consider the imminent turn status to be in play.

GTX pushes above 3212 as this is typed supplying bull juice so focus on this parameter as the most important for now. Bulls win with GTX above 3212 and bears win with GTX under 3212. Before the editing is finished on this message, GTX is back under 3212 to 3210. Keep an eye on it.

4/26/15; 7:00 PM EST =
4/24/15; 10:07 AM EST = +54; signal line is +53
4/24/15; 9:43 AM EST = +68; signal line is +53
4/24/15; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +53
4/23/15; 10:42 AM EST = +68; signal line is +52

Thursday, April 23, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo prints one number today. The bulls run higher fueled by stronger commodities and a rise in copper. The battle on Friday will be between commodities and copper. Watch the GTX 3212 bull-bear line in the sand. The GTX ran above this level creating the bullishness today so the bears must send it back under. Watch JJC 32.58. JJC is under at 32.31 causing market bearishness so bulls need JJC above 32.58 to light the way higher. The stock market will likely move in the same direction as copper tomorrow so watch how it trades overnight.

For the SPX at 2113, the bulls need to push above 2020 to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push under 2103 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2104-2019 is sideways action to end the week. Bears need GTX under 3212 and XLF under 24.17 or they got nothing.

4/26/15; 7:00 PM EST =
4/23/15; 10:42 AM EST = +68; signal line is +52
4/22/15; 10:33 AM EST = +54; signal line is +52

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo was teasing a move to the short side this morning with the SPX moving under 2094 but price would not remain weak so Keybot remained long. Then financials recover with XLF above 24.17 so the bears got slapped in the face. For Thursday, the bears need XLF under 24.17 or they got nothing. If XLF drops under 24.17 and the SPX drops under 2091, Keybot will likely flip short. If XLF drops under 24.17 consider the imminent turn to be in play.

For the SPX starting at 2108, the bulls need to touch the 2110 handle and bingo, the upside will accelerate. The bears need to push under 2091 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2092-2109 is sideways action for Thursday. The algo number is only 2 points from the signal line so the bulls and bears keep fighting it out. Watch XLF 24.17; the banks are ruling the roost and currently the top parameter affecting market direction.

4/26/15; 7:00 PM EST =
4/22/15; 10:33 AM EST = +54; signal line is +52
4/21/15; 1:39 PM EST = +38; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long and printed one number during the Tuesday session. The algo is champing at the bit to go short but the internal programming rules did not completely latch so Keybot remains long. If the SPX drops under 2094 in the Wednesday session, Keybot will likely flip short hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. If stocks gap down at the Wednesday open, a timer may activate preventing a flip to the downside for about 90 minutes.

Copper was weak today creating the downward bias in stocks today. Ditto financials. Bulls need XLF above 24.17 and that is the signal for party time for the upside again. Bulls are in trouble if XLF stays under 24.17. The bears need to push utilities, semiconductors or retail stocks lower to gain more downside fuel. Bears need either SOX under 700 and/or RTH under 76.08 to create market negativity.

If UTIL drops under 578.60 (now at 585.80 causing market bullishness), a trap-door will likely open and there is high probability the stock market would drop like a stone, into free-fall, say within 30 minutes time. Bulls must hold UTIL above 578.60 or they will likely lose control of the stock market. This level and scenario will remain valid for several days forward. 

For the SPX starting at 2097, the bears need to push under 2094 to accelerate the downside and Keybot will likely flip short. The bulls need to touch the 2110 handle and the upside will accelerate. A move through 2095-2109 is sideways action. Bulls need stronger banks or they are in trouble.

4/26/15; 7:00 PM EST =
4/21/15; 1:39 PM EST = +38; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long
4/20/15; 2:07 PM EST = +54; signal line is +51

Monday, April 20, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the long side at SPX 2096 after this morning's open. The financials, semiconductors and retail stocks flip bullish causing the algo to flip back long creating a whipsaw. Copper weakened during the stock market up day. Note that the algo number is only 3 points from the signal line so Keybot may flip back to the short side tomorrow.

Bulls need either JJC above 32.60 (now only one penny under) or GTX above 3214 to continue the upside party. Bears need either RTH under 76.08, XLF under 24.17 or SOX under 700 to stop the upside market rally, any one will do. If one of the three turns bearish and the SPX drops under 2084, Keybot will likely flip short.

For the SPX starting at 2100, the bulls need to touch the 2104 handle and bingo, the upside will accelerate. The bears need to push under 2084 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2085-2103 is sideways action for Tuesday.

For the last trade only one day in duration, the algo lost -0.5% on both the computer program and the actual trading. Keybot exited SH and entered SPY. The algo will remain in the single ETF's until at least 5/26/15 due to the whipsaws and continued sideways choppy market action. Watch copper closely; bulls are happy with higher copper and bears are happy with lower copper.

4/26/15; 7:00 PM EST =
4/20/15; 2:07 PM EST = +54; signal line is +51
4/20/15; 12:52 PM EST = +70; signal line is +51
4/20/15; 12:42 PM EST = +54; signal line is +49
4/20/15; 11:04 AM EST = +70; signal line is +48
4/20/15; 10:15 AM EST = +54; signal line is +48
4/20/15; 9:38 AM EST = +70; signal line is +48; go long 2096; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +1.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -1.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2015 = -4.0%)
4/20/15; 9:36 AM EST = +54; signal line is +47 but algorithm remains short
4/19/15; 7:00 PM EST = +22; signal line is +46
4/17/15; 11:18 AM EST = +22; signal line is +47
4/17/15; 10:56 AM EST = +36; signal line is +48
4/17/15; 10:41 AM EST = +52; signal line is +47 but algorithm remains short
4/17/15; 10:25 AM EST = +36; signal line is +47
4/17/15; 10:00 AM EST = +52; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains short
4/17/15; 9:56 AM EST = +50; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains short
4/17/15; 9:47 AM EST = +36; signal line is +45; go short 2086; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +1.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.6%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -1.2%)(Actual results this trade = +0.5%; Actual results for 2015 = -3.5%)

Saturday, April 18, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side after Friday morning's opening bell at SPX 2086. A breakdown in semiconductors and retail stocks and then financials in the afternoon sends stocks lower.

The bears need to push UTIL under 578.60 (now at 583.28 causing market bullishness) to gain further downside strength. If UTIL drops through 578.60, this will open up a trap-door in the stock market with stocks going into free fall in short order. The bulls must defend the UTIL 579-ish level with all their might otherwise, market carnage will result.

The bulls have an easy road to recover if they can push XLF above 24.17 (now at 24.13 causing market negativity). Four pennies can tick by on the opening print on Monday morning. Bulls will also recover with GTX moving above 3214.65 (now at 3193 causing market negativity). Commodities were very quiet for the last few weeks remaining a negative influence on stocks but copper and commodities move higher desiring to help the bull case. If XLF moves above 24.17 and GTX above 3215-ish, the bulls will have a big come-back rally in play recovering Friday's losses. Since the XLF is within four cents of the critical bull-bear line at 24.17, focus on the banks. As go the financials, so goes the market.

The SPX benchmark index is up +1.3% on the year. On the last trade, the computer algorithm and the actual trading each gain about one-half percent. Keybot exits SPY and enters SH. The algo remains in single ETF's due to the choppy sideways whipsaw market activity this year. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers for the week ahead. Watch utilities, financials and commodities. XLF 24.17 is the strongest current influence on market direction; bears win below and bulls win above.

4/26/15; 7:00 PM EST =
4/19/15; 7:00 PM EST =
4/17/15; 11:18 AM EST = +22; signal line is +47
4/17/15; 10:56 AM EST = +36; signal line is +48
4/17/15; 10:41 AM EST = +52; signal line is +47 but algorithm remains short
4/17/15; 10:25 AM EST = +36; signal line is +47
4/17/15; 10:00 AM EST = +52; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains short
4/17/15; 9:56 AM EST = +50; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains short
4/17/15; 9:47 AM EST = +36; signal line is +45; go short 2086; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +1.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.6%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -1.2%)(Actual results this trade = +0.5%; Actual results for 2015 = -3.5%)
4/17/15; 9:36 AM EST = +36; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
4/16/15; 9:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +46
4/15/15; 1:30 PM EST = +68; signal line is +45
4/15/15; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +44
4/14/15; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains long
4/14/15; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +44
4/12/15; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +43
4/9/15; 12:52 PM EST = +68; signal line is +43
4/9/15; 10:43 AM EST = +52; signal line is +43
4/9/15; 10:28 AM EST = +68; signal line is +43
4/8/15; 9:38 AM EST = +52; signal line is +43
4/7/15; 3:56 PM EST = +36; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains long
4/6/15; 10:21 AM EST = +52; signal line is +42; go long 2074; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -1.8%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2015 = -4.0%)

Sunday, April 12, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The erratic choppy sideways move in markets continues in 2015. The bulls are cruising. Bears need weaker financials and copper to create selling pressure, XLF under 24.16 and JJC under 32.36, respectively. Otherwise, bulls will keep floating the indexes higher. If either parameter turns bearish, the caution flag will be out. The banks begin reporting earnings this week directly impacting XLF.

For the SPX starting at 2102, the bulls need to touch the 2103 handle and an upside acceleration of several points will occur. Thus, watch the S&P futures to see if there is any positivity overnight. The bears need to push under 2092 to create a downside acceleration. A move through 2093-2102 is sideways action to begin the new week of trading. Keybot prints two prescheduled numbers this week one on Thursday morning and one on Friday morning.

4/19/15; 7:00 PM EST =
4/17/15; 10:00 AM EST =
4/16/15; 9:00 AM EST =
4/12/15; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +43
4/9/15; 12:52 PM EST = +68; signal line is +43
4/9/15; 10:43 AM EST = +52; signal line is +43
4/9/15; 10:28 AM EST = +68; signal line is +43
4/8/15; 9:38 AM EST = +52; signal line is +43
4/7/15; 3:56 PM EST = +36; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains long
4/6/15; 10:21 AM EST = +52; signal line is +42; go long 2074; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -1.8%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2015 = -4.0%)

Monday, April 6, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side this morning at SPX 2074; the choppy sideways year continues.

4/12/15; 7:00 PM EST =
4/6/15; 10:21 AM EST = +52; signal line is +42; go long 2074; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -1.8%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2015 = -4.0%)
4/6/15; 10:12 AM EST = +36; signal line is +43
4/6/15; 9:58 AM EST = +20; signal line is +42
4/6/15; 9:36 AM EST = +36; signal line is +41
4/5/15; 7:00 PM EST = +52; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
4/3/15; 9:00 AM EST = +52; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
4/2/15; 12:28 PM EST = +52; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
4/2/15; 12:07 PM EST = +36; signal line is +37
4/2/15; 9:56 AM EST = +52; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
4/1/15; 12:29 PM EST = +36; signal line is +39
4/1/15; 12:06 PM EST = +22; signal line is +40
4/1/15; 10:26 AM EST = +36; signal line is +41
4/1/15; 9:46 AM EST = +22; signal line is +42
4/1/15; 9:30 AM EST = +36; signal line is +43; go short 2064; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +0.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -1.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.1%; Actual results for 2015 = -4.1%)

Wednesday, April 1, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the bear side this morning. The benchmark SPX index is dead flat on the year. The algo program is down -1.3% on the year and actual trading is off -4.1% in 2015.

4/5//15; 7:00 PM EST =
4/3/15; 9:00 AM EST =
4/1/15; 12:29 PM EST = +36; signal line is +39
4/1/15; 12:06 PM EST = +22; signal line is +40
4/1/15; 10:26 AM EST = +36; signal line is +41
4/1/15; 9:46 AM EST = +22; signal line is +42
4/1/15; 9:30 AM EST = +36; signal line is +43; go short 2064; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +0.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -1.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.1%; Actual results for 2015 = -4.1%)
3/31/15; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +36; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains long
3/31/15; 3:10 PM EST = +36; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains long
3/31/15; 12:42 PM EST = +52; signal line is +44
3/31/15; 12:06 PM EST = +36; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains long
3/31/15; 10:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +43
3/31/15; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains long
3/31/15; 9:54 AM EST = +34; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains long
3/31/15; 9:47 AM EST = +50; signal line is +43
3/30/15; 11:16 AM EST = +66; signal line is +43
3/30/15; 10:11 AM EST = +50; signal line is +42
3/30/15; 10:01 AM EST = +66; signal line is +42
3/30/15; 9:46 AM EST = +50; signal line is +41; go long 2082; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +1.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -0.4%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2015 = -3.0%)