Wednesday, April 16, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side today. Once the financials, XLF 21.77, joined the bull camp, the algo latched across all parameters and flips long at SPX 1859. The markets are whipsawing sideways. Note that the prior move was 1859 to 1848, now 1848 back to 1859. These moves will wreak havoc on a timing model but Keybot is smart enough to drop down into single ETF's to ride the turbulence out minimizing the damage. Keybot cycled out of SH and into SPY. The algorithm program lost -0.6% on the last trade and also the actual trading. After 3-1/2 months roll by this year, the broad market is flat on the year.

SOX moves above 563.10. VIX drops under 14.77. Then XLF moves above 21.77 creating the late-day orgy into the closing bell. A triumphant of bullishness. Bears got nothing unless they regain one of these critical bull-bear levels. XLF is 21.82 only a nickel away so pay attention to that one after the opening bell. Tomorrow is the last day of trading this week due to the Good Friday holiday. Bulls will receive additional fuel by goosing copper and/or the retail sector.

For the SPX, the power thrust late-day is strong since price closed at the exact high at 1862.31. Therefore, the bulls only need to see a tiny smidgen of green overnight and it will be off to the races with an acceleration higher into the weekend. The bears will try to prevent any positive number in the overnight futures with all their might. In addition, bears must weaken financials and semiconductors and raise volatility. Bears will also try to push the SPX under 1846 to regain their mojo, a formidable task since the holiday weekend is nigh and traders are in a happy mood content with lining the markets out sideways so the barbecue can be fired up.

A move through SPX 1847-1861 is sideways action. The bulls are cruising. If two of the three parameters in the middle paragraph turn bearish, consider the imminent turn notation to be in play. The caution flag remains out since the bears may stage a comeback tomorrow. The whipsaw sideways market behavior may continue.

4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/16/14; 2:54 PM EST = +47; signal line is +22; go long 1859; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +0.6%)(Keybot this trade = -0.6%; Keybot for 2014 = +3.4%)(Actual this trade = -0.6%; Actual for 2014 = +0.9%)
4/16/14; 11:54 AM EST = +31; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short
4/16/14; 11:36 AM EST = +15; signal line is +21
4/16/14; 9:54 AM EST = +1; signal line is +21
4/16/14; 9:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +23
4/15/14; 1:51 PM EST = +17; signal line is +23
4/15/14; 10:59 AM EST = +1; signal line is +25
4/14/14; 3:48 PM EST = +17; signal line is +26
4/14/14; 3:06 PM EST = +1; signal line is +28
4/14/14; 9:58 AM EST = +17; signal line is +30
4/13/14; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +31
4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST = +1; signal line is +33
4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +35
4/10/14; 12:54 PM EST = +17; signal line is +37; go short 1848; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +0.0%)(Keybot this trade = -0.6%; Keybot for 2014 = +4.0%)(Actual this trade = -2.6%; Actual for 2014 = +1.5%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Another wild and crazy market day occurs. The algo is tracking SOX 563.10, VIX 14.77 and XLF 21.77 as bull-bear lines in the sand. Semi's and volatility turn bullish today creating the market upside. Finanicals are attacking the XLF 21.77 but stalling so far. Keybot wants to go long right now but the internal programming rules are holding it back. One of the key elements that will help latch the algo into flipping long is the SPX HOD print at 1858.45. If the bulls can send the SPX above 1858.45 and hold it above for several minutes, Keybot will likely flip long. Bears need to move SOX under 563.10 and/or VIX above 14.77 immediately to prevent the algo from flipping long. High drama. Keybot is a hair away from going long.

4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/16/14; 11:54 AM EST = +31; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short
4/16/14; 11:36 AM EST = +15; signal line is +21
4/16/14; 9:54 AM EST = +1; signal line is +21
4/16/14; 9:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +23
4/15/14; 1:51 PM EST = +17; signal line is +23

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is short moving into the Wednesday session of trading. Semi's and financials rule the roost. Bears need SOX under 563.10 to regain their mojo. Bulls need XLF above 21.77 to lock in the market upside and substantiate the upside market rally. If the XLF moves above 21.77, and the SPX prints above 1844, and both stay above, Keybot will likely flip long. Thus, pay close attention to bank earnings moving forward since they will impact markets in a major way.

For the SPX starting at 1843, the bulls need to push up through 1844, only one single point, to accelerate higher so watch the overnight S&P futures to see if the bulls receive the positive nod. The bears need to drop under 1816 to regain their mojo; a formidable task that is 27 points lower. Instead, the bears will simply try to create weakness in financials and semiconductors to halt the market upside. A move through SPX 1817-1843 is sideways action for Wednesday. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number in the morning before the opening bell. The bears are in control but the bulls are making a strong move higher.

4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/16/14; 9:00 AM EST =
4/15/14; 1:51 PM EST = +17; signal line is +23

March 2014 Market Chronology Available on Amazon Kindle

Keystone the Scribe, one of Keybot's sister blog sites, releases the latest issue of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics March 2014-03 available on Amazon's Kindle. A handy link is provided in the left margin. All the recent eBook links are provided in the margins.

If you are a seasoned professional trader or a novice wanting to learn how and why markets move in real-time, the daily chronology series are the books for you. The eBooks detail market reactions to the Monthly Jobs Reports, Fed meetings, economic data, earnings releases and geopolitical events. Business and economic teachers and students enjoy the chronologies since textbook theory comes to life. Read about how the IPO frenzy is affecting markets. Study the impact of the recent copper collapse on markets. Become educated on how Ukraine turmoil affects global markets and currencies.


As always, special thanks to the international support for the K E Stone Blog Series of Web Sites especially the strong following from major money centers in New York, Chicago, London, Frankfurt, Paris, Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Sydney and the loyal following from the US, Canada, Mexico, Australia, UK, Germany, France, Russia, China (yes, Russia and China) and Malaysia. The blog sites only continue with the ongoing support of all followers large and small, professional and novice. Keystone the Scribe is the respected world leader in providing historical context for global markets and world economics. Read the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics March 2014-03 issue today to gain a vital market edge. Thank you for the support.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the market craziness continues. Markets are up, down, up, down, if you blink or look away the indexes are in the opposite direction. The bulls push semiconductors higher so the broad indexes recover. Watch financials, XLF 21.77, now at 21.62 only 15 cents away. If the XLF pushes above 21.77, and the SPX above 1844, Keybot will likely flip long, hence, the imminent turn status is back in play again.

4/16/14; 9:00 AM EST =
4/15/14; 1:51 PM EST = +17; signal line is +23
4/15/14; 10:59 AM EST = +1; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the markets perform a pop and drop maneuver today. SOX drops under 563.10 ushering in the market selling. Bulls got nothing unless they push semiconductors higher. XLF (financials) are negative on the day and JJC (copper) is collapsing -2%. The bears are cruising.

4/16/14; 9:00 AM EST =
4/15/14; 10:59 AM EST = +1; signal line is +25
4/14/14; 3:48 PM EST = +17; signal line is +26

Monday, April 14, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short after the first day of trading this week. Bulls push markets higher with semiconductors. For Tuesday, bulls need either XLF 21.78 (financials) and/or JJC 37.53 (copper) to rocket stocks higher and confirm a sustainable upside rally going forward. If either one turns bullish, and the SPX moves above 1834, Keybot will likely flip long. The bears need to push SOX under 563.10 (semiconductors) to stop the market upside in its tracks and introduce market selling.

For the SPX starting at 1831, the bulls need to push up through 1834 to accelerate higher so watch to see if the overnight futures can maintain +3 and higher to give the bulls the nod. The bears need to push under 1816 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1817-1833 is sideways action for Tuesday. Markets remain erratic and unstable clearly evident by today's wild whipsaw trading. Bears got nothing unless they push the SOX under 563.10. Since the bulls can likely flip Keybot to the long side with bullish financials and/or copper as described above, the imminent turn warning is in the title line.

4/16/14; 9:00 AM EST =
4/14/14; 3:48 PM EST = +17; signal line is +26
4/14/14; 3:06 PM EST = +1; signal line is +28
4/14/14; 9:58 AM EST = +17; signal line is +30
4/13/14; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +31

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant is bearish to begin the four-day holiday-shortened week of trading. Markets are closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday. Easter is Sunday. The bears are cruising. The failure in semiconductors create bear fuel. The algo is tracking semi's and copper, SOX 563.50 and JJC 37.60, respectively. Both are creating bearishness and should serve as the first sign that bulls are staging a come back rally. If both remain bearish, the market negativity will continue and markets will drift lower.

For the SPX starting at 1816, the bulls need to recover Friday's big drop of 17 points to regain their mojo, a formidable task. Instead, bulls will try to push semi's and copper higher to stop the market bleeding. Bears need to push under 1814 to accelerate the downside, only a point or two lower. A move through 1815-1834 is sideways action for Monday. S&P futures were -5 last evening then recovered to +1 overnight and over the last hour have dropped back down to -5 (5:30 AM EST) which would make for happy bears. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Wednesday morning.

4/20/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/16/14; 9:00 AM EST =
4/13/14; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +31
4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST = +1; signal line is +33
4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +35

Friday, April 11, 2014

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. SOX 563.69 failed. The SOX (semiconductors) is now collapsing at 560.94. This creates the increased market selling pressure. The bears are in full control. Bulls got nothing unless they can send SOX back above 563.69.

4/13/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST = +1; signal line is +33
4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +35

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bearish as a choppy sideways session occurs for Friday that is staying mainly negative. Financials tumble lower on the disappointing JPM earnings that missed on the top and bottom lines. The algo is watching SOX 563.69 as a bull-bear line in the sand. It ruptured today but the bulls quickly recovered. If SOX loses 563.69 the markets will take another strong leg lower with the SPX charting a path to the low 1800's. The bulls are trying to regain their mojo by pumping copper. The algo is tracking JJC 37.61 as the bull-bear line in the sand. Markets will recover and rally if JJC moves above 37.61. With SOX on the bull side, and JJC on the bear side, the status is quo and markets stumble sideways.

The SPX lost the 1831 level this morning so the acceleration to 1828 support occurred, and failed. Equities deteriorate midday. The SPX is 1821. The SOX drops to 563.85 only pennies from failure but bounces again. Watch SOX 563.69 into the closing bell. Markets will crumble if SOX loses 563.69. 

4/13/14; 7:00 PM EST =
4/11/14; 10:00 AM EST = +17; signal line is +35
4/10/14; 12:54 PM EST = +17; signal line is +37; go short 1848; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +0.0%)(Keybot this trade = -0.6%; Keybot for 2014 = +4.0%)(Actual this trade = -2.6%; Actual for 2014 = +1.5%)

Note Added 2:13 PM: SOX fails 563.69; see if the bears can hold it under, if so, markets are going to sell off strongly. Bulls must move semicondutors higher immediately or they will lose control. Hang on tight.