Wednesday, May 27, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant flips back to the short side after yesterday's opening bell at SPX 2121. Since last Friday, retail stocks, commodities and utilities drop into the bear camp creating broad market selling pressure. Utilities recovered late in the day. Watch UTIL 584.32 (now at 584.39 seven pennies on the bull side ). Stocks will weaken further if UTIL loses the 584.32 level. Watch financials; XLF 24.47. Price is at 24.58 creating bullishness. Equities will sell off if XLF 24.47 fails. Bulls will recover with higher utes and financials and lower volatility.

On the last trade, the Keybot algorithm program and actual trading gain a smidge. The algo exits DIA and enters SDS; the algo is back in the double ETF's as 35 days have passed since a whipsaw has occurred. The benchmark SPX is up +3% on the year.

For the SPX starting at 2104 for Wednesday, the bears need to push under 2099 to accelerate the downside which should tag the low 2090's in quick order. The bulls need to recover yesterday's loss to regain their mojo, a formidable task, so instead will focus on the parameters in the first paragraph. A move through SPX 2100-2124 is sideways action. The bears are driving the bus with the algo number 23 points under the signal line. Three days remain in the month of May that began at 2086.

5/29/15; 10:00 AM EST =
5/26/15; 3:59 PM EST = +35; signal line is +58
5/26/15; 10:13 AM EST = +19; signal line is +59
5/26/15; 10:00 AM EST = +35; signal line is +60
5/26/15; 9:31 AM EST = +35; signal line is +62; go short 2121; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +3.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.5%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -1.1%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2015 = -3.5%)
5/24/15; 7:00 PM EST = +49; signal line is +62 but algorithm remains long
5/22/15; 2:10 PM EST = +49; signal line is +62 but algorithm remains long
5/22/15; 1:15 PM EST = +65; signal line is +61
5/22/15; 12:58 PM EST = +49; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains long
5/22/15; 12:18 PM EST = +65; signal line is +60
5/22/15; 11:17 AM EST = +49; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains long
5/22/15; 9:51 AM EST = +65; signal line is +59
5/22/15; 9:36 AM EST = +49; signal line is +59 but algorithm remains long
5/21/15; 10:07 AM EST = +81; signal line is +59
5/20/15; 2:34 PM EST = +65; signal line is +58
5/20/15; 2:08 PM EST = +51; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains long
5/20/15; 1:51 PM EST = +65; signal line is +57
5/20/15; 12:55 PM EST = +51; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long
5/20/15; 12:23 PM EST = +65; signal line is +56
5/20/15; 11:57 AM EST = +51; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
5/20/15; 11:50 AM EST = +65; signal line is +55
5/20/15; 10:40 AM EST = +51; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long
5/20/15; 9:36 AM EST = +65; signal line is +56
5/19/15; 11:49 AM EST = +67; signal line is +57
5/19/15; 11:41 AM EST = +81; signal line is +57
5/19/15; 11:01 AM EST = +67; signal line is +57
5/19/15; 9:00 AM EST = +81; signal line is +57
5/17/15; 7:00 PM EST = +81; signal line is +55
5/15/15; 2:39 PM EST = +81; signal line is +54
5/15/15; 11:40 AM EST = +65; signal line is +52
5/15/15; 11:13 AM EST = +49; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long
5/15/15; 10:23 AM EST = +65; signal line is +51
5/15/15; 10:00 AM EST = +49; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long
5/14/15; 9:36 AM EST = +49; signal line is +49; go long 2110; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +2.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -1.6%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2015 = -3.6%)

Sunday, May 24, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long through the holiday weekend but is champing at the bit to go short. Trading does not resume until Tuesday morning 9:30 AM EST. If the SPX displays any negativity, Keybot will likely flip short. The market bulls must keep the S&P futures positive on Tuesday morning.

The bulls need either RTH above 76.42, JJC above 33.80 and/or UTIL above 593.83 to regain their mojo and send stocks higher. Any one of the three parameters turning bullish will send the equity markets higher. The bears are poised to take markets lower and will receive further fuel if GTX drops under 3237 and/or UTIL under 583.49. Thus, the bulls need higher retail stocks, copper and utilities while the bears need lower commodities and utilities.

For the SPX starting at 2126 on Tuesday morning, any smidge of negativity will create a downside acceleration and Keybot will likely flip short. The bulls must prohibit any negative point move in the SPX once trading resumes. The bulls must send the SPX above 2132 to create an upside acceleration and new all-time highs will print in quick order. A move through 2127-2131 is sideways action and such a tight range that it is more likely one side or the other will take the ball and run. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and one on Friday morning. The trading month of May ends on Friday; EOM. The SPX began May at 2086.

5/31/15; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
5/29/15; 10:00 AM EST =
5/26/15; 10:00 AM EST =
5/24/15; 7:00 PM EST = +49; signal line is +62 but algorithm remains long
5/22/15; 2:10 PM EST = +49; signal line is +62 but algorithm remains long
5/22/15; 1:15 PM EST = +65; signal line is +61
5/22/15; 12:58 PM EST = +49; signal line is +61 but algorithm remains long
5/22/15; 12:18 PM EST = +65; signal line is +60
5/22/15; 11:17 AM EST = +49; signal line is +60 but algorithm remains long
5/22/15; 9:51 AM EST = +65; signal line is +59
5/22/15; 9:36 AM EST = +49; signal line is +59 but algorithm remains long
5/21/15; 10:07 AM EST = +81; signal line is +59
5/20/15; 2:34 PM EST = +65; signal line is +58
5/20/15; 2:08 PM EST = +51; signal line is +57 but algorithm remains long
5/20/15; 1:51 PM EST = +65; signal line is +57
5/20/15; 12:55 PM EST = +51; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long
5/20/15; 12:23 PM EST = +65; signal line is +56

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the algo is very active today printing five numbers thus far. The bears are trying to push lower but cannot get their ducks in a row. At the opening bell, RTH failed helping bears but GTX turned bullish. Pay attention to GTX 3237 since this key pivot is controlling broad market direction currently. If GTX prints below 3237, and SPX drops under the 2123-2125 area, and both remain weak heading lower, Keybot will likely flip short. The algo number is only three points from the signal line just before noon time verifying the intense bull-bear struggle ongoing. The SPX remains in the sideways range for today breaking under 2125 briefly but recovering as the bears do not yet have enough strength to push lower. GTX is currently printing above 3237 so stocks float higher.

5/24/15; 7:00 PM EST =
5/20/15; 12:23 PM EST = +65; signal line is +56
5/20/15; 11:57 AM EST = +51; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains long
5/20/15; 11:50 AM EST = +65; signal line is +55
5/20/15; 10:40 AM EST = +51; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long
5/20/15; 9:36 AM EST = +65; signal line is +56
5/19/15; 11:49 AM EST = +67; signal line is +57

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the RTH leaked lower near the critical 76.42 bull-bear level. Wednesday trading will be a fight between retail stocks, copper and commodities. Watch RTH 76.42 now at 76.55 causing market bullishness. Watch JJC 33.82 now at 34.00 causing market bullishness. Watch GTX 3237 now at 3217 causing market bearishness.

Thus, it is party time for the bulls if GTX moves above 3237 with stocks running to new all-time highs. The bears need either RTH under 76.42 or JJC under 33.82 to create market selling and if either one flips bearish, and the SPX drops under 2125, Keybot will likely flip short. Keep an eye on copper trading overnight.

For the SPX starting at 2128, the bulls need to touch the 2133 handle and bingo, the upside will accelerate printing new all-time record highs towards 2140. The bears need to push under 2125 to create several quick handles of downside under 2120. A move through 2126-2132 is sideways action but since this is a tight 6-point range, instead a winner will be likely decided be it the bulls or the bears as described.

The bulls are driving the bus but the bears are in close pursuit. Lots of retail companies report earnings and these results will directly impact RTH and help dictate market direction. The US dollar is also in play since a higher dollar will send GTX and JJC lower while a lower dollar will send commodities and copper higher.

5/24/15; 7:00 PM EST =
5/19/15; 11:49 AM EST = +67; signal line is +57
5/19/15; 11:41 AM EST = +81; signal line is +57

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long and the algo did not print any numbers on Monday but prints four numbers today thus far including the pre-scheduled number before the opening bell. The markets remain erratic and unstable with utilities and retail stocks remaining in the bull camp but commodities take a dive as the US dollar catapults higher. Copper is also weaker.

The algorithm is tracking GTX 3237 as the top priority currently. Price is at 3230 seven points in the bear camp. Use this as the key parameter for broad market direction. Market bulls cannot send stocks higher without GTX overtaking 3237 and higher. Also pay attention to JJC 33.82 (copper). JJC is at 34.04 in the bull camp causing lift in the broad indexes but selling pressure will strongly increase in stocks if 33.82 fails. RTH 76.42 is another key metric Keybot is tracking with price now at 76.67 firmly in the bull camp but this can change at anytime.

The imminent turn notation is in the title line since copper may very well cause the algo to flip short. If GTX remains bearish under 3237, and if JJC drops under 33.82, and the SPX drops under 2120-2121, Keybot will likely flip short. So focus on GTX 3237, JJC 33.82 and SPX 2120 to determine broad market direction. For now, the bulls continue to cruise along with their feet up on the dashboard but they may hit a pothole in the road if copper falls further.

5/24/15; 7:00 PM EST =
5/19/15; 11:49 AM EST = +67; signal line is +57
5/19/15; 11:41 AM EST = +81; signal line is +57
5/19/15; 11:01 AM EST = +67; signal line is +57
5/19/15; 9:00 AM EST = +81; signal line is +57
5/17/15; 7:00 PM EST = +81; signal line is +55

Sunday, May 17, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is long as the new week of trading begins. The stock market is overbot as per the algo due to the +81 number above the 80 level. The bears need RTH under 76.38 and/or UTIL under 582.60 to stop the upside rally; either one would do. If one parameter turns bearish the imminent turn is in play and if both turn bearish then Keybot will likely flip to the short side.

For the SPX starting at 2123, the bulls only need one point, to touch the 2124 handle, and an upside acceleration will occur and new all-time record highs above 2126. Watch the S&P futures overnight to see if one positive point appears, or not. The bears must push below 2117 to accelerate the downside which will target 2110 support in quick order. A move through 2118-2123 is sideways action for Monday. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Tuesday morning.

5/24/15; 7:00 PM EST =
5/19/15; 9:00 AM EST =
5/17/15; 7:00 PM EST = +81; signal line is +55
5/15/15; 2:39 PM EST = +81; signal line is +54

Saturday, May 16, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the long side the last couple days joining the bull party first thing Thursday morning at SPX 2110. As per the last post, semiconductors led the way exploding higher at Thursday's opening bell so you knew up was the direction forward. On Friday, higher utility and retail stocks create further upside fuel. The SPX benchmark is up a couple percent this year continuing the sideways choppy action. Keybot exits PSQ and enters DIA. The algorithm program lost -0.7% on the last trade and the actual trading lost -1.0%.

The algo number is +81 showing the bulls in firm control but the move above 80 creates an overbot condition in the stock market. It is likely prudent to bring on index shorts here forward shorting any further bounces but Keybot will motor along and only reverse to the short side if the 1's and 0's dictate. Remember, Keybot is not designed to catch exact tops and bottoms but instead chart the smoothest path through the year maximizing returns with minimal risk. The +81, however, should alert you that markets are toppy.

For next week, focus on retail and utility stocks; the key values the algo are tracking currently are RTH 76.38 and UTIL 582.60. If one of these turn bearish consider the imminent turn to be in play and if both turn bearish then Keybot will likely flip to the short side.

5/17/15; 7:00 PM EST =
5/15/15; 2:39 PM EST = +81; signal line is +54
5/15/15; 11:40 AM EST = +65; signal line is +52
5/15/15; 11:13 AM EST = +49; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long
5/15/15; 10:23 AM EST = +65; signal line is +51
5/15/15; 10:00 AM EST = +49; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long
5/14/15; 9:36 AM EST = +49; signal line is +49; go long 2110; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +2.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -1.6%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2015 = -3.6%)
5/13/15; 3:36 PM EST = +33; signal line is +49
5/13/15; 2:39 PM EST = +49; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains short
5/13/15; 2:23 PM EST = +33; signal line is +48
5/13/15; 1:08 PM EST = +49; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains short
5/13/15; 11:06 AM EST = +33; signal line is +48
5/13/15; 10:04 AM EST = +49; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains short
5/13/15; 9:37 AM EST = +65; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains short
5/13/15; 9:36 AM EST = +49; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains short
5/12/15; 3:58 PM EST = +33; signal line is +49
5/12/15; 12:35 PM EST = +49; signal line is +50
5/12/15; 10:57 AM EST = +33; signal line is +50
5/12/15; 10:46 AM EST = +49; signal line is +50
5/12/15; 9:30 AM EST = +33; signal line is +50; go short 2096; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +1.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2015 = -2.6%)

Thursday, May 14, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The sideways market shenanigans continue. The chips are very active and will determine market direction. Watch SOX 700.28 the bull-bear line in the sand and price begins Thursday trading at 700.13 only 15 pennies in the bear camp causing market negativity. As  semiconductors go, so go the markets. If SOX moves above 700.28, bingo, the stock market runs higher. If SOX remains under 700.28 and leaks lower under 700 the bears win and stocks sell off. If SOX moves above 700.28 and SPX above 2110, and both remain above, Keybot will likely flip long. It is a very similar set-up to yesterday.

For the SPX for Thursday beginning at 2098, the bulls need to push above 2110 and the upside will accelerate several handles higher. S&P futures are +9 two hours before the opening bell so the bulls plan to make a run higher to attack the 2109-2110 level. The bears need to push under 2096 which will accelerate the stock market lower. A move through 2097-2109 is sideways action for Thursday.

Markets are a coin flip remaining unstable and erratic. The bulls and bears treat the market like a hot potato neither side wanting to own it each throwing it back at the other day after day.

5/15/15; 10:00 AM EST =
5/13/15; 3:36 PM EST = +33; signal line is +49
5/13/15; 2:39 PM EST = +49; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains short
5/13/15; 2:23 PM EST = +33; signal line is +48
5/13/15; 1:08 PM EST = +49; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains short
5/13/15; 11:06 AM EST = +33; signal line is +48

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Wild action was expected and the market did not disappoint. Retail stocks and semiconductors jump higher at the opening bell with RTH above 76.38 and SOX above the key 700.28 level so it looked like a done deal for a flip to the long side but not so fast. The internal rules would not latch to allow the move to the long side. The price action on SPX ran to 2109-2110 and stalled prohibiting the flip; the algo needs to see sustainable highs in the minute time frame. Then the retail stocks and semi's both return to the bear camp sending equities lower. If either RTH moves above 76.38 or SOX above 700.28, either one would do, and the SPX moves above 2109, Keybot will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation remains in the title line.

The bulls ran SPX to 2105 and bingo, stocks ran to 2110 in a heartbeat. RTH is currently printing 76.12 (causing bearishness), SOX 699.44 (causing bearishness) and the SPX is at 2102. The beat goes on.

5/15/15; 10:00 AM EST =
5/13/15; 11:06 AM EST = +33; signal line is +48
5/13/15; 10:04 AM EST = +49; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains short
5/13/15; 9:37 AM EST = +65; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains short
5/13/15; 9:36 AM EST = +49; signal line is +48 but algorithm remains short
5/12/15; 3:58 PM EST = +33; signal line is +49

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH --SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side this morning after the opening bell at SPX 2096. Utilities, semiconductors and retail stocks create broad market weakness, however, the stock market remains a coin flip with more wild action expected for Wednesday trading. RTH closes at 76.37 it is truly remarkable for the algorithm to highlight these numbers ahead of time before they occur. SOX also came up to the key 699.90 bull-bear level today and failed. XLF dropped near the key 24.35 level and bounced. The VIX also was rejected at the important 15.35 level. It is amazing that a computer program can provide such results predicting key market inflection points before they occur. The thousands of Keybot followers should be more appreciative of the ongoing interesting results and market insight. Stocks remain choppy sideways this year unwilling to yet commit to a sustainable trend either up or down.

Since RTH closes smack-dab at the bull-bear line in the sand at 76.37-76.38, as retail stocks go on Wednesday, so goes the stock market. To add drama and theatrics, Retail Sales data hits at 8:30 AM EST which will likely decide the direction of equities forward. Market bears need weak data to send RTH lower and bulls need strong sales data to send RTH higher. The imminent turn signal remains in the title line because if RTH moves above 76.38, and the SPX moves above 2106, Keybot will likely whipsaw and flip back to the long side.

The benchmark SPX index is up a couple percent on the year thus far. The Keybot algorithm is down one percent and the actual trading is down -2.6% this year. The choppy sideways markets chew up bulls and bears alike. Keybot exited SPY and entered PSQ.

For the SPX starting at 2099 on Wednesday, the bulls need to move above 2105 and bingo, the upside will accelerate several handles and Keybot will likely flip long. The bears must push the SPX under 2086 to regain their mojo 13 points lower. Bears will focus on sending retail stocks lower which would likely keep Keybot short. Wednesday will be an interesting day; watch the retail stocks and the S&P futures reaction after the Retail Sales data since the stock market will likely move in the same direction as RTH.

5/15/15; 10:00 AM EST =
5/12/15; 3:58 PM EST = +33; signal line is +49
5/12/15; 12:35 PM EST = +49; signal line is +50
5/12/15; 10:57 AM EST = +33; signal line is +50
5/12/15; 10:46 AM EST = +49; signal line is +50
5/12/15; 9:30 AM EST = +33; signal line is +50; go short 2096; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +1.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2015 = -2.6%)
5/11/15; 2:02 PM EST = +65; signal line is +50