Friday, October 31, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as a strong Halloween rally occurs in stocks due to the BOJ providing more easy money. One day is stranger than the next. Copper exploded higher overnight but as the opening bell in the States approached, copper collapses and trades negative. So a boost from JJC does not occur. The JJC 37.15 line in the sand remains in place so the stock market does not receive upside juice from copper. Keep watching this level to see if it confirms the upside, or not. Semi's explode higher and create bullishness but the model had already had the SOX in the bull camp.

Watch VIX 13.94 another oddity today. Volatility collapsed at the opening bell under the 13.94 bull-bear line in the sand, however, immediately ran back into the bear camp. How do you like that? Very odd indeed for such a strong rally. VIX is currently printing 14.42 remaining well above the 13.94 bull-bear line so market bulls will not yet receive juice from lower volatility. For such a strong rally, the expectation is that JJC and VIX would have blown through their lines in the sand but they did not. The bulls are in control but some healthy skepticism is in order for the rally unless the bulls push JJC above 37.15 or VIX under 13.94. The pre-scheduled number prints this morning with the algo number only 20 points above the signal line with the stock market at or near all-time highs. Markets remain very erratic and unstable. 

11/2/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/31/14; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +26
10/30/14; 1:11 PM EST = +44; signal line is +22

Thursday, October 30, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Friday session. The bulls recover on Thursday sending semiconductors higher creating bull fuel in the afternoon. Friday is a battle of copper and semi's. JJC closes at 37.04 a hair away from the 37.16 line in the sand. Bears win if JJC stays under 37.16. Bulls win above and will send the SPX towards 2K. Watch SOX 612.95. Bulls win if SOX stays above 612.95. Bears win below and will send stocks lower if the chips fail.

For the SPX starting at 1995, the bulls need to touch the 2000 handle and bingo, the upside will accelerate several more handles. The bears need to push under 1975 to regain their mojo and accelerate lower. A move through 1976-1999 is sideways action to end the week. The bears were threatening today and many traders were likely caught in a bear trap at SPX 1975-ish and then the SPX rallied over 20 handles intraday.

NYA is above the 10648 line in the sand (40-week MA) which is a deadly blow to bears for the weeks and months ahead. Bears need to focus on keeping copper lower and making semiconductors fail; then they can set their sights on NYA 10648 to right the bear ship. Bulls only need higher copper to party into the weekend perhaps with a 2 handle on the SPX. Watch the overnight copper futures. Basically, for Friday, as copper goes, so goes the stock market. The caution flag is taken down until the bears can flex their muscles again. The algo number is 22 points above the signal line so the bulls remain in good shape. Listen for any semiconductor news overnight.

10/31/14; 10:00 AM EST =
10/30/14; 1:11 PM EST = +44; signal line is +22
10/30/14; 11:03 AM EST = +28; signal line is +20

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long and the algo is very active today printing five numbers thus far. The JJC (copper) failure occurs as previously highlighted. The model slipped negative at 10:47 AM EST but the bulls are fighting back. Note the collapse in semiconductors taking out the SOX 612.75 bull-bear line in the sand. This creates market negativity but the bulls pump NYA higher above the 10647 bull-bear line in the sand to maintain market buoyancy. The fight at NYA 10647 will tell you market direction today. Price is now at 10654 only seven points above.

The caution flag is out again, however, even with NYA failing, Keybot will likely not flip short unless the SPX loses the 1969 level. Markets are erratic and unstable. SOX 612.75 (price now below causing bearishness in stocks) and NYA 10647 (price now above causing bullishness in stocks) provides the market direction answer today. Obviously, if you are bullish you need semiconductors to recover today. If bearish, you want to see NYA fail which will cause the broad indexes to sell off.

10/31/14; 10:00 AM EST =
10/30/14; 11:03 AM EST = +28; signal line is +20
10/30/14; 10:47 AM EST = +14; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
10/30/14; 10:23 AM EST = +30; signal line is +16
10/30/14; 10:13 AM EST = +14; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains long
10/30/14; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +12
10/29/14; 3:59 PM EST = +46; signal line is +10

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long moving into the Thursday session. Watch the NYA 10647 level with price a hair below giving the market bears the nod. Isn't it amazing how the algorithm can identify these key levels before they occur? The stock market will move higher if the NYA prints above 10647 and will move lower if the NYA remains under 10647. Copper is also key; the JJC 37.16 level. Note how JJC sunk lower closing at 37.19 waiting for today to decide direction. Again, isn't it amazing how Keybot can identify these levels ahead of time? The stock market will move higher if JJC stays above 37.16 and will move lower if JJC drops under 37.16. At this writing about 2-1/2 hours before the opening bell, copper is collapsing over -1% and S&P futures are -9. JJC will fail after the opening bell providing bear fuel.

For the SPX starting at 1982, the bulls need to push above 1991 to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push under 1969 to accelerate the downside. Even with the weak futures, the projected drop in the SPX would only be around 1972-ish. The market bears will need several more points to create a strong downside slide. A move through 1970-1990 is sideways action.

The bulls are driving the bus but the bears are fighting back after receiving a beating during the last couple weeks. Copper should fail today which provides downside market juice. It is not enough to flip the model to the short side. The algo is tracking semiconductors; SOX 613. SOX price is at 624 well above the 613 bull-bear line in the sand and the market bears probably need this to fail for the algo to be in position to flip to the short side.

11/2/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/31/14; 10:00 AM EST =
10/29/14; 3:59 PM EST = +46; signal line is +10
10/29/14; 3:46 PM EST = +60; signal line is +7
10/29/14; 2:05 PM EST = +46; signal line is +3
10/29/14; 1:58 PM EST = +60; signal line is -0
10/29/14; 1:45 PM EST = +46; signal line is -3
10/28/14; 3:06 PM EST = +60; signal line is -6

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bears are slapped in the face during a late session melt-up. The NYA moves above the 10646 line in the sand (40-week MA) which signals a cyclical bull market ahead crushing the bear's hope for extended downside. The bulls bludgeoned the bears today using copper and semiconductors early in the day and the NYA above the 40-week MA to unleash the market melt-up during the last hour of trading. 

NYA 10646 is key at the opening bell for Wednesday and the bears must send the NYA under 10646 as soon as possible, otherwise, the SPX will be headed to 2000+. Also watch copper in overnight trading since the bears need to push JJC under 37.16 (now at 37.38 creating bullishness in stocks). A 22 cent drop is -0.6% so this is the magic percentage that bears need to see copper drop by overnight. The algo is also tracking volatility. Watch VIX 13.96 (now at 14.52 creating negativity). If VIX drops under 13.96 the SPX will explode higher above 2000.

For the SPX starting at 1985 closing at the highs in the Tuesday session, the bulls only need a smidge of green in the futures since this will accelerate the upside several handles through the strong 1985-1986 strong resistance and target 1998. So watch to see if the overnight S&P futures are positive, or not. The bears need to push under 1964 to regain their mojo, a formidable task, so at the same time bears will focus on beating copper lower overnight as well as sending the NYA and semiconductors lower. A move through SPX 1965-1984 is sideways action for Wednesday.

The bears were beaten severely Tuesday and will have to fight back on Wednesday. The bears need NYA 10646 and/or JJC 37.16 when the opening bell rings, otherwise, the bears will have to bend over and receive further beatings. The bulls are cruising with the algo number 66 points above the signal line.

10/31/14; 10:00 AM EST =
10/28/14; 3:06 PM EST = +60; signal line is -6
10/28/14; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is -8

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls slap the bears in the face with higher copper from the get-go. JJC is above the 37.16 bull-bear line in the sand creating upside thrust. Semi's head higher creating more bull joy. The algo number is now 54 points above the signal line with the bulls cruising without a care in the world.

Bulls receive more upside juice with stronger copper and semi's and NYA moving above 10650. Bears need to push JJC under 37.16 as soon as possible or they got nothing so pay attention to copper today.

10/31/14; 10:00 AM EST =
10/28/14; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is -8
10/28/14; 9:36 AM EST = +41; signal line is -11
10/27/14; 2:13 PM EST = +25; signal line is -14

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long and the aglo is very active printing five numbers to begin the new week of trading. Despite the flat move in the broad indexes in Monday trading, the bulls have strongly boosted their push higher for equities. In the afternoon, the SOX (semiconductors) moves above the 612.95 bull-bear line in the sand identified by Keybot which guarantees buoyancy in markets. Bears will need to push SOX under 612.95 to stop the upside rally, otherwise, they got nothing.

The bulls are very close to creating further upside strength. Copper trades higher this morning which will send JJC higher. The bull-bear line in the sand is JJC 37.16 with price beginning at 37.00. Equities will move strongly higher if JJC moves above 37.16 only sixteen pennies away. The bulls will also receive strength if NYA moves above 10650. So its all going the bulls way for the last couple weeks.

For the SPX starting at 1962, the bulls need to touch the 1965 handle and this will create an upside acceleration. S&P futures are +10 at this writing about three hours before the opening bell easily able to punch up through the 1965. The bears need to push under 1951 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1952-1964 is sideways action but will only occur if semiconductors are weak today.

The bulls are cruising with the bears locked in the trunk. SOX under 612.95 will stop the upside rally, otherwise, equities will continue floating higher. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number one-half hour after the opening bell.

10/31/14; 10:00 AM EST =
10/28/14; 10:00 AM EST =
10/27/14; 2:13 PM EST = +25; signal line is -14
10/27/14; 1:46 PM EST = +9; signal line is -15
10/27/14; 12:41 PM EST = +25; signal line is -16
10/27/14; 11:42 AM EST = +9; signal line is -18
10/27/14; 11:25 AM EST = +25; signal line is -18
10/26/14; 7:00 PM EST = +9; signal line is -20

Sunday, October 26, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant is long moving into the new week of trading. Monday begins with a fight between semiconductors and financials. The algo is focusing on the chips as the major determinant in broad market direction; the SOX 612.93 line in the sand. The SOX begins at 612.05 so if the semi's overtake the 612.93 level, less than one point away, the bulls will catapult markets higher and not look back. Watch XLF 22.90. XLF begins at 23.10 causing bullishness so market bears need weaker banks and the XLF under 22.90 to get their downside mojo back. Also watch NYA 10635 which would signal a far higher stock market going forward. If NYA remains under 10635, equities should weaken over time and roll back over to the downside.

For the SPX starting at 1965, the bulls only need to see a smidge of green in the overnight futures and the upside party continues with a several handle acceleration higher. The bears need to push the SPX under 1946 to regain their mojo. A move through 1947-1964 is sideways to begin the week. Bulls win with SOX 612.93. Bears win with XLF 22.90. Chips and financials rule the roost so listen for any news on semicondutors and banks. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday and one on Friday.

11/2/14; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/31/14; 10:00 AM EST =
10/28/14; 10:00 AM EST =
10/26/14; 7:00 PM EST = +9; signal line is -20
10/24/14; 9:36 AM EST = +9; signal line is -21

Saturday, October 25, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long through the weekend. The financials, XLF, leap above 22.89 at the opening bell, so voila, the fix was in, and the bulls sent the broad indexes higher. The algo is now tracking semiconductors, financials, the NYA Index and copper. It appears the chips, SOX, will be the key influence on market direction at Monday's opening bell. The areas and levels of interest can be identified once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow. The bulls are cruising.

10/26/14; 7:00 PM EST =
10/24/14; 9:36 AM EST = +9; signal line is -21
10/23/14; 3:59 PM EST = -7; signal line is -22

Thursday, October 23, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bears fight back late in the session sending the XLF down to 22.88 one penny under the critical 22.89 line in the sand identified by the algo. Isn't it amazing that Keybot can identify these key levels before they occur? So the pivot with financials will determine market direction from the get-go on Friday. Higher banks and higher stocks; lower banks and lower stocks. The bears likely need weaker retail stocks (RTH to move under 62.00) to place the model in a position to go short.

For Friday with the SPX starting at 1951, the bulls need to touch the 1962 handle and a strong upside acceleration will occur. The bears need to push under 1931 to accelerate the downside. The S&P futures are -11 on Thursday evening in the States dropping due to a confirmed Ebola infection in New York City. A move through 1932-1961 is sideways action for Friday.

10/26/14; 7:00 PM EST =
10/23/14; 3:59 PM EST = -7; signal line is -22
10/23/14; 10:20 AM EST = +9; signal line is -22