Friday, July 3, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short through the holiday weekend. XLF plays around at the 24.60-ish level as called out by the algorithm ahead of time. This is key on Monday morning since the stock market will pivot the same way as the financials. As XLF goes, so goes the markets. The bears are cruising. Areas and levels of interest for next week can be identified after the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints.

7/5/15; 7:00 PM EST =
7/2/15; 3:51 PM EST = -22; signal line is +1
7/2/15; 3:42 PM EST = -38; signal line is +3
7/2/15; 3:28 PM EST = -22; signal line is +4
7/2/15; 12:22 PM EST = -38; signal line is +5
7/2/15; 9:00 AM EST = -22; signal line is +6
7/1/15; 9:36 AM EST = -22; signal line is +6

Tuesday, June 30, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. Note how the financials, XLF, came up to kiss the 24.60 level but the bulls did not have the juice to take it higher so the upside stalled for the broad stock market. Is is amazing that the Keybot algorithm can call these levels out before they occur; an astounding feat. In the afternoon, the bulls pushed commodities higher and that kept stocks buoyant through the closing bell.

For Wednesday, the battle is between the NYA Index, XLF (financials) and GTX (commodities). Bulls need either NYA above 10895 and/or XLF above 24.60 to receive upside energy in the stock market. The caution flag is out since either of these two parameters turning bullish will indicate more upside ahead for stocks. If both turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to be in play and Keybot will likely flip to the long side. The bears need to push GTX under 3217 to receive juice to push stocks lower. GTX begins at 3226 only 9 points above.

For the SPX starting at 2063, the bulls need to push above 2074 which will create a strong upside acceleration into the 2080's. The bears need to push under 2056 to accelerate the downside towards 2044. A move through 2057-2073 is sideways action.

7/2/15; 9:00 AM EST =
6/30/15; 7:00 PM EST; EOM; EOQ2; EOH1 = -24; signal line is +7
6/30/15; 2:02 PM EST = -24; signal line is +8
6/30/15; 10:00 AM EST = -38; signal line is +9
6/29/15; 11:07 AM EST = -41; signal line is +10

Monday, June 29, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bears came to play today pushing stocks strongly lower. Retail stocks failed as well as financials creating negativity. Also the NYA Index. Bears will receive additional downside fuel if the SPX drops under 2038. The bulls will stop the market selling with either NYA 10895 and/or XLF 24.60. The bears are cruising but anything can happen. The NYA and XLF levels will directly gauge the strength of any relief rally.

For the SPX starting at 2058 on Tuesday, the bears need to push under 2057 to accelerate the downside so watch to see if any negativity appears in the S&P futures. The bulls need to recover today's loss to regain their mojo, a formidable task, so instead the bulls will try and push the NYA Index and financials higher to stop the market selling.

7/2/15; 9:00 AM EST =
6/30/15; 7:00 PM EST; EOM; EOQ2; EOH1 =
6/30/15; 10:00 AM EST =
6/29/15; 11:07 AM EST = -41; signal line is +10
6/29/15; 10:22 AM EST = -27; signal line is +11
6/29/15; 9:36 AM EST = -11; signal line is +12
6/28/15; 7:00 PM EST = +5; signal line is +12

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short to begin the new week of trading. Greece fails to reach a bailout agreement so there is downside pressure in stocks. The bears need to push retail stocks lower by pushing RTH under 76.00 to gain more downside juice.  The bulls need to push either VIX under 13.73 or GTX above 3219 to stop the market selling.

For the SPX starting the week at 2101, the bulls need to touch the 2109 handle to accelerate the upside but this is not on tap for the open. The bears need to push under 2095 to accelerate the downside. S&P futures are down about 21 points so the SPX 2095 should fail in the opening minute or two. Price will seek support at 2091, 2086 and then the 2072-2081 zone if the upper levels fail. Keybot prints three pre-scheduled numbers this week during a four-day trading week. Markets are closed on Friday for the July 4th holiday.

7/5/15; 7:00 PM EST =
7/2/15; 9:00 AM EST =
6/30/15; 7:00 PM EST; EOM; EOQ2; EOH1 =
6/30/15; 10:00 AM EST =
6/28/15; 7:00 PM EST = +5; signal line is +12
6/26/15; 10:00 AM EST = +5; signal line is +12

Saturday, June 27, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the short side through the weekend. The model flipped short at SPX 2106 on Thursday as the sideways choppy price action continues this year. Markets remain a coin-flip and subject to the Greece bailout negotiations. The PBOC (China's central bank) cut rates today which will pump stocks higher on Monday. Volatility, commodities and retail stocks are key for next week. The areas and levels of interest can be identified once the Sunday pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow.

On the last trade, the algorithm program gains +0.6% and the actual trading gains +1.1%. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS. The benchmark SPX is up a couple percent this year. The algo program and actual trading metrics are flat on the year. Stocks can go either way on Monday; flip a coin.

6/28/15; 7:00 PM EST =
6/26/15; 10:00 AM EST = +5; signal line is +12
6/25/15; 3:44 PM EST = +3; signal line is +12
6/25/15; 3:41 PM EST = +17; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains short
6/25/15; 3:11 PM EST = +33; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains short
6/25/15; 3:10 PM EST = +17; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains short
6/25/15; 2:18 PM EST = +3; signal line is +12; go short 2106; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +2.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.6%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +0.7%)(Actual results this trade = +1.1%; Actual results for 2015 = -0.2%)
6/25/15; 2:06 PM EST = +17; signal line is +12
6/24/15; 10:50 AM EST = +33; signal line is +13
6/24/15; 10:16 AM EST = +47; signal line is +12
6/22/15; 9:36 AM EST = +33; signal line is +9
6/21/15; 7:00 PM EST = +19; signal line is +8
6/19/15; 3:59 PM EST = +19; signal line is +7
6/19/15; 3:52 PM EST = +33; signal line is +6
6/18/15; 9:50 AM EST = +49; signal line is +4
6/18/15; 9:37 AM EST = +33; signal line is +3
6/18/15; 9:36 AM EST = +19; signal line is +2
6/17/15; 2:38 PM EST = +3; signal line is +2
6/17/15; 2:26 PM EST = -13; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains long
6/17/15; 2:08 PM EST = +3; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains long
6/17/15; 12:12 PM EST = -13; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains long
6/17/15; 11:59 AM EST = +3; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains long
6/17/15; 11:36 AM EST = -13; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains long
6/16/15; 1:20 PM EST = +3; signal line is +4 but algorithm remains long
6/16/15; 9:00 AM EST = -13; signal line is +4 but algorithm remains long
6/15/15; 9:36 AM EST = -13; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains long
6/14/15; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains long
6/12/15; 2:11 PM EST = +1; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains long
6/12/15; 1:37 PM EST = +17; signal line is +7
6/12/15; 11:49 AM EST = +1; signal line is +7 but algorithm remains long
6/12/15; 11:31 AM EST = +17; signal line is +8
6/12/15; 10:40 AM EST = +1; signal line is +7 but algorithm remains long
6/12/15; 10:00 AM EST = +14; signal line is +8
6/12/15; 9:36 AM EST = +14; signal line is +8
6/10/15; 9:47 AM EST = +28; signal line is +9; go long 2094; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +1.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.2%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +0.1%)(Actual results this trade = +2.2%; Actual results for 2015 = -1.3%)

Sunday, June 21, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long to begin the new week of trading. The bulls need higher utilities and lower volatility to keep the stock market party moving to the upside. The bears need lower financials to begin growling and turn the tables on the bulls. Bulls need either UTIL above 572.92 (now at 569.68) and/or VIX below 13.90 (now at 13.96). Bears need XLF below 24.54 (now at 24.74). If XLF loses the 24.54 level, and the SPX is under 2109, and both remain under, Keybot will likely flip short.

For the SPX starting at 2110, the bulls need to touch the 2122 handle to launch an immediate strong move to 2130. The bears need to push under 2109, only one point lower, to accelerate a downside move for the stock market. Watch the S&P futures to see if the bears can muster up one negative point, or not. A move through 2110-2121 is sideways action to begin the week. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. Watch VIX 13.90 closely since price is only six pennies away in the bear camp. Bulls win big if VIX moves below 13.90 while bears win big if volatility climbs higher.

6/28/15; 7:00 PM EST =
6/26/15; 10:00 AM EST =
6/21/15; 7:00 PM EST = +19; signal line is +8
6/19/15; 3:59 PM EST = +19; signal line is +7

Saturday, June 20, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long through the weekend. UTIL tags the 570 level and VIX 13.90 level in the final minutes of trading for the week. It is astounding and remarkable that the mathematical algorithm can predict these exact levels before they occur. The information should be appreciated more by the thousands of followers, if not, the site may go dark at anytime. For Monday, the VIX 13.90 and UTIL 572.92 levels will play a key role. The week ahead can be assessed after the pre-scheduled Sunday number prints tomorrow.

6/21/15; 7:00 PM EST =
6/19/15; 3:59 PM EST = +19; signal line is +7
6/19/15; 3:52 PM EST = +33; signal line is +6
6/18/15; 9:50 AM EST = +49; signal line is +4

Friday, June 19, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls are in full control with the algo number 45 points above the signal line. Bulls can receive further upside juice if GTX moves above 3228 (now at 3203 in the bear camp). The bears can stop the stock market rally if either VIX moves above 13.90 (now at 13.19 in the bull camp) or if UTIL drops under 570 (now at 575 in the bull camp). At the closing bell today, watch UTIL 573 which will be the bull-bear line in the sand for all of next week (572.92 to be exact). If UTIL is under 573 as today's trading ends, that is a heads up that market weakness will be likely on Monday morning. If UTIL ends the day above 573, the bulls will be celebrating all weekend long.

For the SPX starting at 2121, the bulls need to touch the 2127 handle and bingo, the upside will accelerate and test the all-time high at 2135 in very quick order. The bears need to push under 2102 to accelerate the downside that will target 2091. A move through 2103-2125 is sideways action to end the week. S&P futures are flat as this message is typed about one-half hour before the opening bell.

6/21/15; 7:00 PM EST =
6/18/15; 9:50 AM EST = +49; signal line is +4
6/18/15; 9:37 AM EST = +33; signal line is +3

Thursday, June 18, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls send stocks wildly higher the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq at record highs. Utilities and retail stocks jump higher and volatility collapses creating the bull fuel to rocket equities higher. The bulls are cruising.

The market bears can only stop the party if UTIL drops under 570.03 (now at 573) and/or if the VIX moves above 13.90 (now at 13.34). The bulls will receive further upside fuel if GTX (commodities) moves above 3228 (now at 3201).

6/21/15; 7:00 PM EST =
6/18/15; 9:50 AM EST = +49; signal line is +4
6/18/15; 9:37 AM EST = +33; signal line is +3
6/18/15; 9:36 AM EST = +19; signal line is +2
6/17/15; 2:38 PM EST = +3; signal line is +2

Monday, June 15, 2015

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains on the long side. The bulls will receive further upside juice with either UTIL above 570.03 (now at 567.03), or VIX under 13.91 (now at 14.50) or RTH above 75.88 (now at 75.66). Bears will steal control if SOX drops under 714.90 (now at 715.20) and if the semi's turn bearish, and if the SPX drops under 2089, both are required, Keybot will likely flip short.

For the SPX on Thursday, 6/18/15, starting at 2100, the bulls need to touch the 2107 handle and bingo, the upside will accelerate well above 2110. The bears need to push under 2089 to create a downside acceleration. A move through 2090-2099 is sideways action for Thursday.

6/21/15; 7:00 PM EST =
6/17/15; 2:38 PM EST = +3; signal line is +2
6/17/15; 2:26 PM EST = -13; signal line is +2 but algorithm remains long
6/17/15; 2:08 PM EST = +3; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains long
6/17/15; 12:12 PM EST = -13; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains long
6/17/15; 11:59 AM EST = +3; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains long
6/17/15; 11:36 AM EST = -13; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains long
6/16/15; 1:20 PM EST = +3; signal line is +4 but algorithm remains long
6/16/15; 9:00 AM EST = -13; signal line is +4 but algorithm remains long
6/15/15; 9:36 AM EST = -13; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains long
6/14/15; 7:00 PM EST = +1; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains long