Thursday, August 20, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short today with the banks breaking down. Friday is a contest between retail and financial stocks. Bears will receive further downside fuel with RTH under 77.37 (now at 77.41 only four pennies on the bull side creating market upside). If RTH moves higher then the stock market will recover. The bulls need either SPX above 2060 and/or XLF above 25.00, either would do, to confirm that the market selling is over. If stocks recover on Friday, but the SPX remains under 2060 and XLF under 25, then the market selling will likely resume next week.

For the SPX starting at 2036, any smidge of negativity in the S&P futures will send the SPX several points lower. The bulls need to recover today's big loss in the SPX, a formidable task, so instead bulls will focus on sending RTH, XLF and the SPX higher to at least slow down or stabilize the market selling. The bears are driving the bus.

Keybot the Quant algo logs the third loss in a row as markets keep trading choppy sideways. The losses, however, are marginal the computer program and the actual trading both losing about one-half percent. The robot is in the single ETF's mode due to the choppy nature of the price action. Keybot exits SPY and enters SH. The SPX Benchmark Index is up +0.8% but after the day played out and ended at 2035, the SPX is down -1.2% on the year. The bears are in charge with the algo number 26 points below the signal line. 

8/23/15; 7:00 PM EST =
8/20/15; 10:01 AM EST = -10; signal line is +16
8/20/15; 9:30 AM EST = +4; signal line is +17; go short 2076; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +0.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +1.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2015 = +1.7%)
8/19/15; 11:06 AM EST = +20; signal line is +18
8/19/15; 10:46 AM EST = +4; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
8/18/15; 11:37 AM EST = +20; signal line is +18
8/18/15; 10:11 AM EST = +34; signal line is +18
8/18/15; 9:51 AM EST = +20; signal line is +16
8/18/15; 9:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +16
8/17/15; 11:02 AM EST = +34; signal line is +16
8/17/15; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +16
8/16/15; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +16
8/14/15; 10:00 AM EST = +34; signal line is +16
8/14/15; 9:58 AM EST = +34; signal line is +16
8/14/15; 9:45 AM EST = +20; signal line is +15
8/13/15; 3:59 PM EST = +35; signal line is +16
8/13/15; 3:40 PM EST = +21; signal line is +15
8/13/15; 11:54 AM EST = +35; signal line is +14
8/13/15; 10:34 AM EST = +21; signal line is +12
8/13/15; 9:53 AM EST = +5; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains long
8/12/15; 3:30 PM EST = +21; signal line is +10; go long 2087; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +1.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.1%; Keybot algo for 2015 = +2.2%)(Actual results this trade = -2.1%; Actual results for 2015 = +2.1%)

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