Saturday, April 18, 2015

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side after Friday morning's opening bell at SPX 2086. A breakdown in semiconductors and retail stocks and then financials in the afternoon sends stocks lower.

The bears need to push UTIL under 578.60 (now at 583.28 causing market bullishness) to gain further downside strength. If UTIL drops through 578.60, this will open up a trap-door in the stock market with stocks going into free fall in short order. The bulls must defend the UTIL 579-ish level with all their might otherwise, market carnage will result.

The bulls have an easy road to recover if they can push XLF above 24.17 (now at 24.13 causing market negativity). Four pennies can tick by on the opening print on Monday morning. Bulls will also recover with GTX moving above 3214.65 (now at 3193 causing market negativity). Commodities were very quiet for the last few weeks remaining a negative influence on stocks but copper and commodities move higher desiring to help the bull case. If XLF moves above 24.17 and GTX above 3215-ish, the bulls will have a big come-back rally in play recovering Friday's losses. Since the XLF is within four cents of the critical bull-bear line at 24.17, focus on the banks. As go the financials, so goes the market.

The SPX benchmark index is up +1.3% on the year. On the last trade, the computer algorithm and the actual trading each gain about one-half percent. Keybot exits SPY and enters SH. The algo remains in single ETF's due to the choppy sideways whipsaw market activity this year. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers for the week ahead. Watch utilities, financials and commodities. XLF 24.17 is the strongest current influence on market direction; bears win below and bulls win above.

4/26/15; 7:00 PM EST =
4/19/15; 7:00 PM EST =
4/17/15; 11:18 AM EST = +22; signal line is +47
4/17/15; 10:56 AM EST = +36; signal line is +48
4/17/15; 10:41 AM EST = +52; signal line is +47 but algorithm remains short
4/17/15; 10:25 AM EST = +36; signal line is +47
4/17/15; 10:00 AM EST = +52; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains short
4/17/15; 9:56 AM EST = +50; signal line is +46 but algorithm remains short
4/17/15; 9:47 AM EST = +36; signal line is +45; go short 2086; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +1.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.6%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -1.2%)(Actual results this trade = +0.5%; Actual results for 2015 = -3.5%)
4/17/15; 9:36 AM EST = +36; signal line is +45 but algorithm remains long
4/16/15; 9:00 AM EST = +68; signal line is +46
4/15/15; 1:30 PM EST = +68; signal line is +45
4/15/15; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +44
4/14/15; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains long
4/14/15; 9:36 AM EST = +52; signal line is +44
4/12/15; 7:00 PM EST = +68; signal line is +43
4/9/15; 12:52 PM EST = +68; signal line is +43
4/9/15; 10:43 AM EST = +52; signal line is +43
4/9/15; 10:28 AM EST = +68; signal line is +43
4/8/15; 9:38 AM EST = +52; signal line is +43
4/7/15; 3:56 PM EST = +36; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains long
4/6/15; 10:21 AM EST = +52; signal line is +42; go long 2074; (Benchmark SPX for 2015 = +0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2015 = -1.8%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2015 = -4.0%)

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