Monday, October 20, 2014

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side this afternoon shortly after 2 PM EST at SPX 1900. Utilities powered higher after the opening bell this morning so the fix was in for higher markets. The SPX moved steadily higher from start to finish following the game plan for the bulls laid out this morning. Utilities rocket higher then the SPX overtook the 1895 which provided bull juice. Price then moved above 1898 so an upside acceleration was on tap and Keybot went long at 1900. Price ran higher to close at 1904 one-point off the HOD at 1905.03. As always, stay alert for a whipsaw.

The Keybot the Quant algorithm computer program gained +2.2% on the last trade and the actual trading gained +2.3%. The benchmark SPX is up +3% this year with Keybot's actual trading up nearly +10% (this is the actual return allowing for all commissions, fees and any mechanical inefficiencies). Keybot exited DOG and entered DIA.

The algo is tracking the retail sector and the SPX 1895 level as the two key influences on market direction for Tuesday. Watch RTH 61.95. The RTH begins at 61.82 only 13 cents away from the bull-bear line in the sand that will guarantee bull victory ahead. The bears need to prevent RTH 61.95 with all their might. If RTH 61.95 gives way to the upside, the bears will fold like cheap suit. So listen closely for any retail news. The bears need to push the SPX under 1895 or they got nothing.

For the SPX starting at 1904, the bulls only need one point, to push up through 1905, and an upside acceleration will occur. Watch the overnight S&P futures to see if the bulls plan to continue the party by printing one positive point or more. The bears need to push under 1882 to get their mojo back a formidable task, so instead bears will focus on keeping RTH sub 61.95 and sending SPX under 1895. A move through 1883-1904 is sideways action for Tuesday.

10/26/14; 7:00 PM EST =
10/20/14; 2:12 PM EST = -23; signal line is -24; go long 1900; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +2.8%)(Keybot this trade = +2.2%; Keybot for 2014 = +8.9%)(Actual this trade = +2.3%; Actual for 2014 = +9.7%)
10/20/14; 1:23 PM EST = -23; signal line is -24 but algorithm remains short
10/20/14; 12:34 PM EST = -37; signal line is -24
10/20/14; 12:06 PM EST = -23; signal line is -23 but algorithm remains short
10/19/14; 7:00 PM EST = -37; signal line is -22
10/17/14; 12:15 PM EST = -37; signal line is -20
10/17/14; 11:37 AM EST = -23; signal line is -19
10/17/14; 10:00 AM EST = -36; signal line is -18
10/17/14; 9:00 AM EST = -37; signal line is -17
10/16/14; 10:35 AM EST = -37; signal line is -15
10/16/14; 9:47 AM EST = -53; signal line is -14
10/14/14; 12:56 PM EST = -37; signal line is -12
10/14/14; 12:24 PM EST = -21; signal line is -11
10/14/14; 12:22 PM EST = -7; signal line is -11 but algorithm remains short
10/14/14; 11:48 AM EST = -23; signal line is -11
10/13/14; 3:24 PM EST = -37; signal line is -12
10/13/14; 1:51 PM EST = -23; signal line is -12
10/13/14; 12:32 PM EST = -7; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short
10/13/14; 9:52 AM EST = -23; signal line is -13
10/13/14; 9:36 AM EST = -7; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short
10/12/14; 7:00 PM EST = -23; signal line is -12
10/9/14; 11:54 AM EST = -23; signal line is -11; go short 1943; (Benchmark SPX for 2014 = +5.1%)(Keybot this trade = -1.0%; Keybot for 2014 = +6.7%)(Actual this trade = -0.9%; Actual for 2014 = +7.4%)

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